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Brewers, Cubs Play Rubber Match of Their Three-Game Set on Sunday Night Baseball

Milwaukee vs Chicago Betting Odds

Jon Lester has allowed just one earned run at Wrigley Field this season and his Chicago Cubs are -135 favorites in the series finale against the visiting Milwaukee Brewers who are coming back at +120. Jhoulys Chacin is sporting an ugly 7.50 ERA on the road, but his Brewers are 4-4 in his starts this season. Tonight's game has an opening total of 7.5 runs.

Brewers vs Cubs Game Center

Standout Stats

  • Chicago is 11-2 SU and 6-7 ATS in its last 13 games. The Cubs are also 14-6 at Wrigley Field this season.
  • Milwaukee is 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS through its last 15 contests and had a seven-game winning streak snapped yesterday by Chicago. The Brewers are just 8-9 in road games this year.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of Chicago’s last 13 games with an average combined score of 8.85, but have gone UNDER in four straight games. Meanwhile, the total has gone UNDER in nine of Milwaukee’s last 13 contests with an average combined score of 7.85.
  • The Cubs are 4-2 through Jon Lester’s six starts this season and he is 2-1 with a 1.41 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He has had four quality starts in 2019 and is coming off back-to-back outings in which he didn’t allow an earned run.
  • He is averaging the third-highest K/9 rate and lowest BB/9 rate in his career. Additionally, he is stranding 90.3 percent of baserunners which is outstanding but at some point, will likely come back to his norm around 77-80 percent.
  • Opponents are hitting just .213 off of Lester this season, but 40.4 percent of the batted balls have been hard hit, the highest percentage in his career. Milwaukee ranks fourth in the majors in hard-hit batted ball percentage vs LHP.
  • Lester has been especially good at Wrigley Field this year, sporting a 0.69 ERA, but batters are hitting .273 against him which is 109 points higher than his road split.
  • Milwaukee is 4-4 behind Jhoulys Chacin this season and he is 3-3 with a 5.03 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He has two quality starts this season with his most recent coming on April 30 when he tossed six scoreless innings vs Colorado.
  • He is averaging the highest BB/9 and HR/9 rate in his career, while also having his lowest groundball percentage.
  • Chacin has quieted the opponent bats nicely, though, limiting them to just a .210 average. That being said, 43 percent of the batted balls against have been hard hit, the highest rate in his career. The Cubs rank 21st in hard-hit batted ball percentage vs RHP.
  • It has been a bit of a nightmare over Chacin’s four road starts as he is holding a 7.50 ERA and a .250 opponent batting average.
  • The Cubs are 18-10 against right-handed starters this year ranking fifth in batting average and in runs scored vs righties. Meanwhile, the Brewers are 8-5 against left-handed starters and are eighth in batting average and fourth in runs scored vs southpaws.

My Best Bet for Milwaukee vs Chicago

Milwaukee +1.5

Although Jon Lester has been remarkable at home, he has been hit somewhat hard and he has a much higher opponent batting average at Wrigley than on the road. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is eighth in batting average and fourth in runs scored against LHP. Chacin has been hurt by the long ball, but the Cubs rank 21st in hard-hit batted ball percentage against righties.

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