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Phillies’ Offense Has Been Crushing At Home

The Philadelphia Phillies try to win their third game in a row when they host the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. The Phillies are 14-7 SU in 21 home games this season and will lean on ace Aaron Nola to shut down the Brew Crew. Nola has rung off three quality starts and the Phillies have hit 31 of their 44 home runs this season at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies opened as -160 faves with a total of 8.

Brewers vs Phillies Game Center


  • Aaron Nola (4.57 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) has started to round into form after a few rough starts in April. The 25-year-old has rung off three straight starts of only allowing one earned run and struck out 18 batters. However, when he faced the Brewers last season, he got lit up for seven hits and four earned runs in 4.1 innings.
  • Freddy Peralta (6.75 ERA, 1.61 WHIP) will get the start for the Brewers and is a baseball version of Jekyll and Hyde. He’s coming off a wonderful start vs the Nationals where he limited them to three hits and no runs in five innings in the 6-0 win. But when he’s off, he’s really off because in four of his starts this year, he’s allowed three or more earned runs. In the start prior to facing the Nationals, he gave up eight hits and six earned runs in only four innings vs the Rockies.
  • Neither team has been really clubbing the ball lately and both are hitting less than .230 over the last week while only swatting a total of eight home runs in 12 games. The Phillies have been a much better offense when playing at home as they’ve scored 126 runs in 21 games at Citizens Bank Park while hitting 31 of their 44 homers this season in Philly.
  • Although bullpens have been getting knocked around this season, the Phillies’ relievers have been fairly decent. They have a collective ERA of 3.89, which ranks eighth in MLB, and have only blown three saves in 12 opportunities.
  • The Brewers may be one of the best teams in the National League but they have not fared well on the road. They dropped two games in Wrigley Field while also getting swept in separate three-game sets vs the Cardinals and Angels this season.
  • The UNDER has hit in 13 of the Brewers’ 18 road games this season (average combined score: 8.5). The UNDER has also hit in six of the Phillies’ last seven games (average combined score: 7.2 runs). In seven Brewers road games this season when the total was set at 8 or less, the UNDER hit in five of them.  

My Best Bet for Brewers vs Phillies


I agonized about this total because there are a ton of UNDER trends coming into this game and I believe in the talent that these teams possess. However, both of these pitchers have been very prone to letdowns. Peralta has two starts with no earned runs allowed and in his other four outings, he’s allowed a ton of runs and didn’t make it past the fifth inning.

Philly’s offense has performed much better at home and I think they could score eight runs on this pitching staff by themselves. I’d rather bank on the OVER than try to pick a winner because both teams are in the upper echelon of the NL.