The Milwaukee Brewers will try to win back-to-back games at Citizens Bank Park when they face the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. The Brewers clubbed the Phillies last night with a 6-1 win and are 7-1 SU in their last eight games vs NL East teams. The Phillies have been a much better team at home this season (15-8 SU in 23 games) and will lean on Jake Arrieta to take down the Brew Crew. The Brewers counter with Gio Gonzalez, who owns a career 3.22 ERA in 15 starts in Philly.
The Phillies opened as -115 favorites with a total of 9.
Brewers vs Phillies Game Center
STANDOUT STATS
- Jake Arrieta will get the start for the Phillies and got destroyed by the Royals in his last outing. The 33-year-old gave up three dingers and four earned runs in five innings in the 5-1 loss and has allowed 11 earned runs over his last three starts. In two starts last season vs the Brewers, he owns an 8.31 ERA over 8.2 innings and obviously lost both games.
- Gio Gonzalez takes the mound for the Brewers and in three starts, he’s been fairly dominant. Gio is coming off an excellent two-hit shutout of the Cubs at Wrigley Field and has only allowed three earned runs in three starts this season (16 innings). He started three games vs the Phillies last season and gave up 11 hits and nine walks over 15 innings of work. For his career at Citizens Bank Park, the lefty owns a 3.22 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 15 starts (92.1 innings).
- The Phillies have been a much better offense when playing at home as they’ve scored 128 runs in 23 games at Citizens Bank Park while hitting 32 of their 45 homers this season in Philly. However, they haven’t fared well vs lefties this season as the Phillies have only hit eight home runs in 308 at-bats while averaging .244 from the plate.
- Although bullpens have been getting knocked around this season, the Phillies’ relievers have been fairly decent. They have a collective ERA of 3.71, which ranks seventh in MLB, and have only blown three saves in 12 opportunities.
- A lot of UNDER trends coming into this matchup with the UNDER hitting in four of the Brewers’ last five games (average combined score: 6.6 runs) while the UNDER has also hit in five of the Phillies’ last six games (average combined score: 7.1). In Gonzalez’s three starts this year, the UNDER has hit each time while the total has also fallen short in four of Arrieta’s six starts this season.
My Best Bet for Brewers vs Phillies
UNDER 9
I was a little iffy on taking this UNDER because of my history of banking on Arrieta and Gonzalez to throw decent innings but Gio has looked the part in a Brewers uniform. He has been nearly unhittable this season with Milwaukee and was excellent for them down the stretch last season when he owned a 2.13 ERA in five starts. Arrieta is the one who scares me in this scenario but I think he can at least keep the Brewers’ bats in check long enough to get the Philly bullpen in the game and settle the offense down.
