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Surging Twins Eye Series Sweep Over Halos

The Minnesota Twins have won five of Martin Perez’s last six trips to the mound yet they are only slight -115 favorites tonight against the Los Angeles Angels, who are coming back at -105. Matt Harvey counters for the Angels and is sporting an ugly 8.63 ERA at home this year. Tonight’s total opened at 9 runs.

Twins vs Angels Game Center

Standout Stats

  • Minnesota is 12-4 SU and 10-6 ATS over its last 16 games and more recently has gone 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS in its last eight. The Twins have the best road record in the majors at 17-8.
  • Los Angeles is 6-6 SU and 8-4 ATS through its last 12 contests and is riding a three-game losing slide. The Angels are 13-12 at home this season.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of Los Angeles’ last 16 contests with an average combined score of 9.81. Similarly, the total has gone UNDER in nine of Minnesota’s last 17 matches with an average combined score of 9.59.
  • The Twins are 5-2 in Martin Perez’s seven starts this season and he is 6-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, including three relief appearances. He has had five quality starts this year.
  • He has the highest K/9 rate in his career at 9.00 and the lowest HR/9 rate since the 2015 season.
  • Opponents are hitting .228 against Perez, which is the lowest average of his career, and of the contact against, 18.8 percent is soft-hit and 32.6 percent is hard-hit. Los Angeles ranks 25th in hard-hit batted ball percentage vs LHP this month.
  • Perez has a slightly higher ERA on the road at 3.33 but a lower opponent batting average at .216.
  • The Angels are 5-4 in Matt Harvey’s nine appearances this season and he is 2-3 with a 6.35 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. He has had three quality starts.
  • He is averaging 3.97 BB/9, which is the second-highest rate of his career, while having his third-lowest K/9 rate.
  • Opponents are hitting .254 against him, the lowest batting average against since the 2015 season. That being said, he has the highest hard-hit percentage and lowest soft-hit percentage. He has the second-lowest percentage of soft-hit batted balls among starting pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings. Minnesota ranks 10th in hard-hit percentage vs RHP this month.
  • Harvey has been horrendous at home, sporting an 8.63 ERA and allowing visitors to hit .302 against him. Additionally, in night games, he holds a 7.28 ERA and a .284 opponent batting average.
  • The Angels are just 4-12 against left-handed starters this season, ranking dead last in batting average and 21st in runs scored against southpaws. In May, they rank 26th in batting average and 17th in runs scored vs LHP.
  • The Twins are 28-11 against right-handed starters this year, sitting fourth in batting average and first in runs scored against righties. This month, Minnesota again ranks fourth in batting average and first in runs scored vs RHP.

My Best Bet for Minnesota vs Los Angeles

Minnesota Moneyline

The Twins have been all over right-handed pitchers this season, leading the majors in runs scored and sitting fourth in batting average against them. Meanwhile, Matt Harvey has been struggling with a 6.35 ERA and that is elevated at Angel Stadium, where he sports an 8.63 ERA and a .302 opponent batting average. Lastly, the Angels rank dead last in batting average and 21st in runs scored vs LHP this season.

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