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MLB Pick: Detroit at Tampa Bay

The Rays are favored at home tonight against a slumping Tigers’ squad that has won only three of their last ten games.

Detroit Tigers (51-46) at Tampa Bay Rays (59-38)

Bovada has the Rays posted at -175 with the Tigers at +155 and a run total of 8.5.

Tonight’s game is one of Tampa Bay’s current 11-game home stand and they need to keep playing well to keep pace with the Yankees in the AL East. The Rays have won two straight, are 6-4 in their last 10 games, and trail the New York Yankees by three games in the division. The Tigers are not a good road team, as they are 13 games under .500 away from Detroit, but they are still in the AL Central race in third place only two games back of the White Sox.

Detroit has not won a series on the road since May.

This season the Rays are 26-20 at home and the Tigers are only 16-29 on the road.

In their last games yesterday the Rays beat the Cleveland Indians 4-2 and the Tigers lost to the Toronto Blue Jays 5-3. Tampa Bay has won six of their last seven home games, while the Tigers have lost six straight on the road.

The Tigers are banged up, as Brandon Inge, Magglio Ordonez, and Carlos Guillen are all on the 15-day DL.

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Taking the mound for the Rays tonight is Matt Garza (10-5 4.36 ERA), who in his last start went six innings giving up seven earned runs, but got a no-decision. Max Scherzer (7-7 4.43 ERA) is on the hill tonight for the Tigers and he was solid in his last outing giving up 0 earned runs in seven innings in a win.

Tonight will be Scherzer’s first career start against Tampa Bay.

Garza has not fared well against the Tigers in his career going 0-4 with a 5.85 ERA in six career starts against them.

Detroit’s pitching will have to step up in this game against a Rays’ offense that has scored the third most runs in the AL this season.

Detroit is 0-7 in Scherzer’s last seven road starts and Tampa Bay is 4-1 in Garza’s last five starts.

Detroit is only 5-16 in their last 21 road games and the total has gone Under in five of their last six games.

Tampa Bay is 11-3 in their last 14 games as a favorite and they have an Over record of 4-0 in their last four games facing teams with a winning record.

Pick: The Tigers are simply not a good road team and they will continue that trend tonight, as the Rays will come out and win Game 1 of this series tonight.