We all know about Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, but Steven Matz is looking to join the club of feared Mets starters – and he’s off to a good start. Matz has a 0.87 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through his first two starts. New York is a +120 moneyline underdog against Kevin Gausman and the Braves tonight in Atlanta. The total opened at 9.
Standout Stats
- Atlanta starting pitching has allowed just 22 runs through 58.2 innings, good for the No. 3 mark in the National League. Mets starters are No. 8 with just 32 runs allowed through 61 innings. Looking at first-five stats, the Braves are No. 4 with 24 runs allowed while the Mets are No. 6 at 26.
- New York and Atlanta are both in the top 10 in MLB in runs per game. The Mets are No. 5 at 6.3 runs per game while the Braves are No. 9 at 5.4 runs per game. However, the UNDER has hit in seven of the last 10 games between these clubs.
- The Mets are 4-0 SU in their last four games with Steven Matz as the starting pitcher, including 2-0 through two starts this season. Matz pitched just three innings vs Atlanta last year but in two career starts at SunTrust Park, he’s kept the Braves to a .456 OPS and a .171 batting average.
- The Braves are hitting .292 with five home runs in 111 at-bats vs left-handed pitching this season. The average falls to .252 in the first five innings of games, indicating that they’ve been much better against left-handed relievers than starters.
- Kevin Gausman has made just one start this season but was dominant over seven innings vs Miami last week. He threw only 88 pitches and gave up two hits, striking out seven and walking just two.
- Gausman made just one start vs the Mets last year, pitching five innings and getting tagged for three runs and a loss. He’s only made three appearances vs New York in his previous six MLB seasons.
- Robinson Cano is 6-for-15 with a triple and two RBIs vs Gausman. They played in the same division briefly when Cano was with the Yankees and Gausman was with the Orioles.
My Best Bet for Mets vs Braves
F5 UNDER 5
I really like the underdog Mets in this game but my best bet is UNDER five runs for the first five innings. New York’s bullpen has been taxed pretty good lately, which is why I don’t love the full-game UNDER bet, however, both Gausman and Matz have been quality.
I suspect that Matz and Gausman both get through at least five tonight, keeping things in check until our bet cashes.
The total has gone UNDER in seven of the last 10 games between these teams. The Mets are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games vs the Braves.away The Braves are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.home
