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Atlanta and New York’s Struggles on Offense Could Drive Play on UNDER

Pete Alonso's Mets are underdogs in the New York vs Atlanta odds for June 30.

The Atlanta Braves have seen the total go UNDER in seven of their last eight games including the first game of their current series against the New York Mets on Tuesday in a 4-3 Mets win. Another low-scoring game could be on tap this Wednesday night when the Braves and Mets clash in Atlanta.


New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
  • Date/Time: June 30, 7:20 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Truist Park
  • TV Coverage: SNY, BSS
  • Opening Odds: Braves -140 | O/U 8.5 runs (Line History)
  • Mets vs. Braves (Matchup Report)

Opening Odds Analysis

The Braves opened as -140 favorites at home and have moved up slightly to Atlanta -145. New York is going off at +135 to pull off an upset in Atlanta while the total has moved up to nine runs since opening at 8.5 runs. The Mets are 4-1 in their last five road games against the Braves.

Starting Pitchers Analysis

David Peterson has had an up-and-down season for the Mets in 2021 with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP across 63.2 innings pitched. Peterson has pitched well over his last three starts, compiling a 1.08 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP over that stretch. The 25-year-old has a 3.79 ERA in night games this season.

Max Fried returns to action on Wednesday after a short stint on the injured list with blisters on his pitching hand. Fried has shaken off an ugly start to the season to record a 2.51 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over his last eight starts. In 56 career innings pitched against the Mets, Fried owns a 2.73 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP with 60 strikeouts.

New York News & Notes

Down 3-0 heading into the top of the seventh inning, the Mets came roaring back with a four-run frame that was powered by a three-run home run by catcher James McCann. Charlie Morton had cruised through six innings without any trouble before the Mets put together this rally in the seventh. New York snapped a two-game losing streak with the win and improved to 41-34 on the season.

The Mets enter Wednesday in first place in the National League East despite a slew of injuries to their pitching staff and an offense that ranks 29th in the majors in run production with 3.6 runs per game. New York’s 3.10 team ERA ranks best in the majors.

Atlanta News & Notes

The Braves seemed to be trending in the right direction earlier this month with a 5-2 run from June 17 through June 22, but since then Atlanta is 2-4 over its last six games. Atlanta has gone ice cold on offense over its last 11 games with a dismal 2.27 runs per game over that stretch.

Ronald Acuna Jr. has played well this season with a .281 batting average, 21 home runs, 62 runs and 47 RBI. The Braves as a whole enter Wednesday ranked fourth in the majors in home runs with 110. But with a team batting average of just .233, Atlanta’s boom-or-bust offense has been wildly inconsistent, and it shows during stretches like this one.

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Betting Pick: UNDER 9 runs

David Peterson and Max Fried are both pitching better of late than their season ERAs would indicate. Both of these offenses are struggling. All signs point to another UNDER in Atlanta.


Shark Bites
  • New York is 6-3 in its last 9 games vs. Atlanta.
  • Atlanta is 3-7 in its last 10 games vs. NL East teams.
  • The UNDER is 12-6 in New York’s last 18 games.