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Surging Red Sox Too Good For Stumbling Mets

Chris Sale leads the Red Sox against the Mets

The New York Mets have lost six of their last seven games and have stumbled out of the NL playoff conversation. The Boston Red Sox have won six consecutive games and own the top wild-card position in the AL. As the Mets resign themselves to playing the role of spoiler down the stretch, things don’t get any easier. Today they must face Chris Sale in the final game of this mini two-game series.

New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox
  • Date/Time: September 22, 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Fenway Park
  • TV Coverage: SNY, NESN
  • Opening Odds: Red Sox -125 | O/U 8 (Line History)
  • Mets vs Red Sox Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

These are two teams trending in opposite directions and it’s no surprise to see the Sox open as heavy -196 favorites on the moneyline. The total opened at 9 and is an interesting play. Chris Sale gets the call for Boston today and he has been brilliant since he returned to action late in the season. The total has gone OVER in five of Boston’s last seven games and the Sox are averaging almost eight runs per game during their winning streak.

Starting Pitchers Analysis

In 15 home appearances, Taijuan Walker has a 3.55 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, but the numbers look much different in 13 starts on the road, where right-hander is just 3-6 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Over his last five starts away from home, Walker has allowed 22 earned runs in 22.1 innings and surrendered seven home runs.

Chris Sale returned to the Boston rotation on August 14 and hasn’t missed a beat since rejoining the club after a long absence following Tommy John surgery. In six starts, the Red Sox ace is 4-0 with a 2.40 ERA and is striking out a batter per inning. The big lefty is averaging only five innings per start, though, and has managed to complete six innings just once.

New York News & Notes

Last night’s disappointing loss was New York’s sixth in seven games. The Mets fell to 6.5 games back in the NL East and with only 11 games remaining, they have 0.1 percent implied odds of making the playoffs. 

New York committed $341 million over 10 years to Francisco Lindor in a move they thought would bolster their odds of making the playoffs. The shortstop is hitting .271 with six home runs and 15 RBIs in September, giving Mets fans hope that his second season in New York will produce better results than his first one did.

Javy Baez was acquired from the Cubs at the trade deadline and in his brief time with the club has had a roller-coaster ride, scuffling offensively at times and struggling at times to get along with Mets fans. However, even the New York faithful can appreciate that Baez is hitting .377 with five homers and a .463 OBP in September.

Boston News & Notes

From September 5 to September 13, the Red Sox lost six of eight games and with the Yankees and Blue Jays playing so well at the time, their push for the playoffs seemed to be all but over. After six consecutive wins since that stretch, Boston now owns a 1.5-game lead for the top wild-card spot in the AL. After the Mets leave town, the Yankees arrive in Boston for a huge three-game series.

During their six-game win streak, the Sox are averaging almost eight runs per game. Xander Bogaerts is hitting .361 in September with a .452 OBP and three home runs in just 10 games.

Boston is also getting a lot of production from 31-year-old journeyman Jose Iglesias. The 10-year veteran was released by the Angels in early September and signed with the Sox. Since joining Boston, Iglesias has delivered an eye-catching .382 batting average and chipped in with a home run and five RBIs.

Staff Betting Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+110)

It’s hard not to like the Red Sox in this game. Not only are they on an impressive win streak, but they are also sending Chris Sale to the mound. There isn’t a lot of value on the opening -196 moneyline, but getting them at plus money with a -1.5 spread provides more value. Take the home team -1.5 in this one.

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Shark Bites
  • The OVER is 5-2 in Bostons last 7 games.
  • New York is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games vs Boston.
  • Boston is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games.