Betting Preview: New York Yankees vs Houston Astros

It’s the ALCS matchup six months in the making: the 107-win Houston Astros against the 103-win New York Yankees. The Astros have home field in Game 1, but with their third starting pitcher on the mound and the Yankees well-rested, do they have the advantage?

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Houston went 3-0 at home in the ALDS, plus they were 4-0 at home against New York in the 2017 ALCS. So it’s not a surprise the Astros open as favorites despite Greinke’s noted playoff struggles and the fact that New York’s offense looked dangerous in their ALDS series. Due to the increased firepower, the total also opened at 9, higher than any Houston playoff game thus far.

New York News & Notes

The Yankees couldn’t ask for a much better scenario coming into a 2017 ALCS rematch with the Astros: Their calling cards, a lethal offense and deep bullpen, both looked as strong as advertised as the Yankees swept Minnesota in their ALDS series.

The sweep also afforded the Yankees a chance to rest their bullpen and set their starting rotation. While James Paxton opened the division series, manager Aaron Boone has tabbed Masahiro Tanaka for this Game 1. Tanaka allowed one run and seven strikeouts over five innings against the Twins last series, and he’s 4-2 with a 1.54 ERA in six career playoff starts.

He’ll need to be at his best again, in what is a near must-win game for the Yankees. Winning Game 1, and stealing home field advantage, is always big, but with New York likely facing Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole four times in a seven-game series, they must win the games they don’t start.

That means they must get to Zack Greinke and steal game one, or they’ll be seriously behind the eight ball for the remainder of the series.

Houston News & Notes

The Astros were pushed to the limit in their ALDS series, jumping out to a 2-0 lead but having to finish off the Tampa Bay Rays in five games.

While the extended series means the Astros won’t be able to start Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole in Game 1, they still have arguably the deepest lineup in baseball and a track record of dominant play at home.

The Astros are 13-3 in their last 16 playoff home games, and in their last playoff series against New York, a seven-game victory in the 2017 ALCS, Houston swept all four games at Minute Maid Park.

While the home field advantage is a real bonus, for the Astros to continue their winning ways in Game 1, they’ll need to put some runs on the board. Look for rookie Yordan Alvarez, the most powerful lefty in their lineup, to be of particular danger against Tanaka, who yielded a .285 average and 15 home runs against left-handed hitters.

Betting Pick: OVER 9 runs

Tanaka is known to get victimized by the long ball, while Greinke has struggled in the playoffs. With both teams possessing myriad big bats, I see Game 1 turning into a slugfest.