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UNDER Should Be the Play in Mets-Braves Opener

Max Fried and the Atlanta Braves are moneyline favorites in MLB betting odds for their game Monday night vs the New York Mets.

Just when you thought the New York Mets might be able to open up a lead in the National League East, they put together a clunker of a series to fall back to the pack. The Mets (18-16 SU, 15-18-1 O/U) look to rebound from an ugly three-game sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays as they visit Atlanta (19-21 SU, 22-17-1 ATS) in the first meeting of the season between the rivals.

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves
  • Date/Time: May 17, 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Truist Park
  • TV Coverage: ESPN
  • Opening Odds: Braves -125 | O/U 8.5 (Line History)
  • Mets vs Braves Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The Braves kicked off the betting cycle as -125 favorites, but that line has soared into the -150 range at the majority of sportsbooks. The total has shrunk a half-point from 8.5 to 8 in most spots.

Starting Pitchers Analysis

Mets right-hander Taijuan Walker (3-1, 2.20 ERA) continues to look like one of the savviest offseason additions in the league. He’s coming off back-to-back gems against St. Louis and Baltimore, limiting the Cardinals and Orioles to just two runs (one earned) on five total hits over 14 innings of work. Walker has kept opposing sluggers at bay, having allowed just one home run in 41 innings on the season.

Braves counterpart Max Fried (1-1, 6.55 ERA) is starting to turn things around after a miserable start to his 2021 campaign. The 27-year-old lefty is coming off a six-inning masterpiece against Toronto (2 H, 1 ER, 4 K), one week after holding Washington to a run on four hits over five innings. Current members of the Mets are slashing .188/.284/.352 against him.

New York News & Notes

The Mets head to Georgia expecting to be without the services of outfielder Michael Conforto, who will likely be placed on the 10-day injured list with a hamstring injury.

After a miserable April (.212 BA, 1 HR, 4 RBIs in 66 ABs), Conforto had started to turn things around in May, batting .255 with a .386 on-base percentage, one home run and nine RBIs in 47 at-bats.

Atlanta News & Notes

Freddie Freeman is the only current member of the Braves with a home run against Walker – and that’s not the only reason he should be on your Monday daily fantasy roster.

Freeman was a force against the Brewers over the weekend, going 5-for-13 with two home runs and six RBIs. He’s now up to 11 HRs and 27 RBIs through his first 39 games and is still reasonably priced in DFS.

Betting Pick: UNDER 8 (-110)

Both pitchers are throwing exceptionally well at the moment, while the Mets average among the fewest runs per game in the majors. Braves games are typically higher-scoring, but this should be an exception.

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Shark Bites
  • The Mets have dropped 7 of their last 9 games vs Atlanta.
  • The Braves are 2-5 in their past 7 home games.
  • The UNDER is 4-2 in New York’s last 6 games vs NL East opponents.