The 2018 Subway Series comes to a close as the New York Yankees, Sportsbooks in six of their last seven, host the New York Mets for a one-game makeup from July 22. The Pinstripes have won three of the previous five games in the season series and opened as the -172 favorites with the Mets coming back at +147. A pair of aces take the mound as Jacob deGrom faces Luis Severino with the total Sportsbook at 7 runs.
- The total has gone UNDER in 17 of the Yankees’ last 24 games when Sportsbook a series.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Mets’ last eight games on the road with Jacob deGrom as the starting pitcher.
- The Mets are 2-7 SU in their last nine games against the Yankees.
View Mets vs Yankees matchup page
Can Severino return to form?
Getting the ball for the Yankees is Luis Severino (15-5, 3.11 ERA), looking to rebound from a recent rough stretch. The Dominican Republic native was the favorite in the AL Cy Young odds through most of the season as he was nearly automatic when he made the trip to the mound, but in July the wheels seemingly fell off. The 24-year-old had allowed more than three earned runs just once through his first 19 outings, but in four of his last five trips to the mound he has surrendered four or more runs.
The Yankees hurler got a look at the Mets lineup in mid-June at Citi Field. Severino gave up two earned runs on five hits over five innings in a 2-0 loss. The righty has made three appearances vs the Mets in his career and he has a remarkable 1.15 ERA over that span while averaging an impressive 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings. According to our pitcher run support page, Severino has been the beneficiary of a prolific Yankees offense averaging 5.38 runs in his starts.
The Mets offense has been non-existent with deGrom on the hill
Countering for the Mets is Jacob deGrom (6-7, 1.77 ERA). The 30-year-old is having a terrific season despite a losing record. He leads MLB with a 1.77 ERA, is the only starter in the National League to have a sub-2.00 ERA and is fifth in the majors with a 0.96 WHIP. However, the Mets are just 9-14 SU when deGrom gets the ball. The Florida native has been a victim of lack of run support as the Mets are averaging just 3.61 runs per game when he’s on the hill.
The righty faced the Yankees in early June for his fifth career start against them. DeGrom tossed eight innings, allowing two earned runs on four hits, but once again was provided little run support and was saddled with a 4-1 loss. Over his five lifetime starts vs the Pinstripes he is 1-4 with a respectable 3.67 ERA while averaging 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings, which is his lowest mark vs any team he has made at least five starts against.
Should you be on the UNDER tonight?
Runs come at a premium with these two aces on the hill and Sportsbook has tonight’s total Sportsbook at 7 runs. The Yankees have gone UNDER in 17 of their last 24 series openers, including a combined score of five runs in their first opener vs the Mets in June. In addition, the Mets have gone UNDER in six of deGrom’s last eight road starts with an average combined score of 6.6. Similarly, the Yankees have gone UNDER in six of Severino’s last eight home starts. Lastly, the clubs have gone OVER tonight’s total of 7 runs a combined 21 times through the 47 combined trips to the mound for the two starters.
