In one of, if not the coolest, events of the MLB season, the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies finish their weekend series tonight in Williamsport, Pennsylvania. This is the 2018 MLB Little League Classic to be held at BB&T Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field in conjunction with the Little League World Series. In the inaugural MLB Little League Classic last year, the Pirates beat the Cardinals 6-3.
Where’s the Edge in the Starting Pitching Matchup?
The Mets have lost 12 of 13 games started by Jason Vargas this season, including seven straight. It’s been a season to forget for Vargas who is 2-8 with a lofty 8.10 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. I’d like to tell you that it’s been better as of late for the 13-year veteran but it hasn’t. He’s 0-2 in August with a 7.15 ERA. If there’s any good news for Vargas (other than the season is almost over) it’s that he’s lowered his first half OBA of .344 to .288 in the second half.
Nick Pivetta (7-9, 4.37, 1.25 WHIP) will make his first start against the Mets this season. Pivetta is having his best month of the season in August: he’s 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three starts. Last time out on August 14 against the Red Sox, Pivetta pitched six innings and gave up just one earned run on three hits.
Phillies Bats Quiet in August
The Phillies remain a half game behind the Atlanta Braves in National League East race but it’s been largely in part to their pitching staff as the hitters have been near the bottom of the league in many offensive categories. The Phils’ are hitting .233/.301/.377 in August with 17 home runs in 16 games.
In 12 games vs the Mets this year, Philadelphia is hitting .235/.308/.369. Carlos Santana has a paltry .194 average in this matchup and Cesar Hernandez hasn’t been much better at .240. The Phillies are averaging just over three runs per game vs New York.
The Mets have been marginally better, hitting .244/.313/.404 vs Philadelphia and scoring just under five runs per game.
Totals Trends
Based on the above offensive statistics, you won’t be surprised to learn that the UNDER has cashed in nine of the 12 games between these teams in 2018 with an average combined score of 6.0 (removing the 24-4 outlier on August 16).
The total has hit the UNDER in each of Jason Vargas’ and Nick Pivettas’s last three starts. The average combined score was 7.33 in Vargas’ starts and it was 5.0 for Pivetta’s.