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Mets Eye Weekend Sweep OVER Phillies In Sunday Night Baseball

Mets vs Phillies Betting Odds

The Philadelphia Phillies haven’t been swept since mid-June to the Miami Marlins but they are a +105 underdog tonight facing a sweep situation against their NL East rivals the visiting New York Mets who are coming back at -125. Trade deadline acquisition Marcus Stroman gets the ball for the Mets, while Zach Eflin counters for the Phillies with the total opening at 9.5 runs.

Mets vs Phillies Game Center

Standout Stats

- New York is 2-6 SU and ATS over its last eight contests, but its two wins came in the first games of this series. The Mets hold a 32-39 record on the road this season.

- Philadelphia is 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS over its last 10 games and is looking to avoid being swept for the first time since mid-June. The Phillies are 40-31 at Citizens Bank Park in 2019.

- The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Phillies’ last 12 matches with an average combined score of 11. Similarly, the total has gone UNDER in seven of the Mets’ last 10 with an average combined score of eight.

- New York is 4-1 behind Marcus Stroman since acquiring him from the Blue Jays at the end of July and he is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP over that span. He has yet to tally a quality start for his new club, but he had 14 with Toronto earlier in the year.

- This season he is averaging 7.42 K/9, 2.81 BB/9 and 0.90 HR/9 rates which are close to his career averages.

- Opponents are hitting .256 against Stroman this season and of the contact against, 34.6 percent has been hard hit and 19.3 percent has been soft hit. The Phillies rank fifth in the majors in hard-hit percentage vs RHP through August.

- Stroman has a 2.91 ERA and a .264 opponent batting average through his 11 road starts this season. He averages a higher K/9 rate while having lower BB/9 and HR/9 rates compared to his home outings. He also has higher soft-hit and lower hard-hit percentages.

- The Phillies are 8-14 over Zach Eflin’s 22 starts this year, including losing six of his last seven starts and he is 8-11 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP, including four relief appearances. He has 11 quality starts this season as well.

- Eflin is averaging 7.24 K/9, 2.53 BB/9 and 1.48 HR/9 rates which are all similar to his career averages.

- Opponents are hitting .272 against Eflin this season and of the batted balls against, 37.3 percent are hard hit and 16.4 percent are soft hit. In August, the Mets rank 25th in hard-hit percentage vs RHP.

- Eflin has a 4.60 ERA and a .276 opponent batting average in his 12 trips to the mound at Citizens Bank Park. He averages higher K/9 and BB/9 rates while having a slightly lower HR/9 rate. Lastly, he has much higher soft-hit and lower hard-hit percentages compared to his road outings.

- New York is 55-46 against right-handed starters this year and ranks 14th in batting average and 17th in runs scored. In August, the Mets scored the fifth-most runs in the majors and ranked fourth in batting average vs righties

- Philadelphia is 54-44 against right-handed starters this season, sitting 18th in runs scored and 19th in batting average. Over the last month, the Phillies were 14th in batting average and 15th in runs scored vs RHP.

My Best Bet for New York vs Philadelphia

OVER 9.5 runs

Both teams have been just so-so against right-handed pitching this season, but the Mets tore it up in August against righties. Eflin has nothing better than a disaster with the Phillies winning just one of his 11 appearances since the end of June. Meanwhile, although the Mets have been winning behind Stroman, he hasn’t been over effective, as he has managed to pitch six innings just twice since being traded and both of those outings he allowed four runs. I think both teams will have the lumber going and the OVER should come through.