My NRFI picks for today feature a surefire NRFI pick on the Cardinals and Reds. After that, it's a YRFI play in the Dodgers-Brewers game, where the return of Mookie Betts makes Los Angeles' lineup extra dangerous.
NRFI Pick Today: Cardinals vs Reds (-125)
Cardinals vs Reds Odds -- Game Time 6:40 p.m. ET
This pick is slightly chalked because the books don't want to get killed on what is a [guaranteed] NRFI best bet today. The Cards (81-58 NRFI) and the Reds (70-49 NRFI) are two of baseball's most consistent NRFI clubs, setting us up nicely. Here are all the details.
Firstly, the Reds rarely score in the first inning. Cincy is batting just .191 in the first this year. That number drops to .175 BA in the last 14 days, during which the Reds own a lousy .606 OPS as a team. The Cardinals are slightly better (.226 BA), but not so much better that our bet is in jeopardy.
The pitching matchups in this contest are our cherries on top. Hunter Greene (20-3 NRFI) is a machine in the first inning, carving for a 2.35 ERA while opponents generate a .581 OPS against him. St. Louis' Erick Fedde (19-4 NRFI) is even better, pitching to a 1.97 ERA in the first inning this season with only one homer allowed.
YRFI Pick Today: Dodgers vs Brewers (-115)
Dodgers vs Brewers Odds -- Game Time 8:10 p.m. ET
As a rule of thumb, it's a good idea to bet the YRFI in Dodgers games. Los Angeles has nearly surpassed the Rockies for the YRFI crown, riding a 64-55 YRFI record into this contest. It's easy to understand why, as the Dodgers have Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and now Mookie Betts, fresh off the injured list, hitting in the first inning. There's no better top-of-the-order in baseball.
More good news for the YRFI: Gavin Stone starts for Los Angeles, offering a decent chance at a YRFI score by the Brewers, who boast a respectable 56-62 YRFI record. Stone is 15-6 NRFI this inning, but he has allowed back-to-back YRFI scores, which makes him vulnerable again Tuesday.
Brewers starter Colin Rea (7-12 YRFI) is no saint either, as his 4.74 first-inning ERA and .858 opponent OPS all move the needle closer to a winning YRFI bet.
