The NRFI picks train is back in service as MLB hits another Friday. This time around, we've got a beauty pitching matchup that has us betting NRFI in the D-backs vs Cubs game, while weak offense helps our NRFI pick in the Reds vs Nationals contest.
Here are our NRFI picks for today.
NRFI Pick Today: D-backs vs Cubs (-125)
Arizona vs Chicago Odds - Game Time: 2:20 pm ET
I'll use this matchup to demonstrate that sometimes bad pitchers can ace it in the first inning. Justin Steele of the Cubs (61-37 NRFI) isn't our bad egg, but Ryne Nelson is, yet he and the D-backs (51-46 NRFI) are destined for a NRFI bet today.
Mr. Nelson owns a 4.98 ERA on the season, but that number shrinks to a minuscule 0.57 ERA. Opponents are batting .182 with a .483 OPS — he's got that first-inning magic, and nobody knows why. Nelson has allowed just 10 first-inning hits in 57 plate appearances. He's a quiet GOAT of NRFI bets.
Steele holds it down on the other side, with an unbelievable six hits allowed in 14 starts. This is as easy a NRFI bet as we'll see all year.
NRFI Pick Today: Reds vs Nationals (-115)
Cincinnati vs Washington Odds - Game Time: 7:05 pm ET
Before we even address the pitching matchup, let me dub this contest as the best possible NRFI outcome in baseball. The Nats (65-32 NRFI) are the best NRFI club in baseball, and the Reds aren't far behind (57-40 NRFI). Of note, these are the two worst first-inning offenses in the game. Washington bats .206 with a .282 OBP, while Cincy bats .184 with a .262 OBP.
These two clubs suck at scoring, and, as such, their pitchers have clean NRFI records. Franke Montas is 13-4 NRFI, and, despite sketchy numbers, Patrick Corbin owns a 16-3 NRFI record.
This pick is really simple. When the two best NRFI clubs in baseball meet, put at least two units on this play.
