The 2025 MLB regular season is back on March 18 in Tokyo and so are my NRFI picks for the rest of the campaign.
The Dodgers square off against the Cubs in what is likely to be an epic pitching duel in the Land of the Rising Sun. Here is my lone NRFI pick and analysis for March 18:
NRFI Pick Today: Dodgers vs Cubs (-125)
Dodgers vs Cubs Odds - Game Time: 6:10 a.m. ET
So, where do I start? Well, generally, MLB offense is hard to come by in the early portions of the season. That starts me off with the belief that this contest goes for a NRFI in the early hours of March 18. It takes hitters a minute to find their timing, so I usually lean toward UNDERs and NRFIs during March and April baseball.
Cold weather is normally a factor, but this series will be played at the Tokyo Dome in Japan. While an indoor stadium suggests more offense, the limited Park Factor data from Baseball Savant suggests the opposite. For "runs scored," the Tokyo Dome scored 96 in 2019, 62 in 2012, and 94 in 2008 during limited MLB samples. Now, that's not a massive amount of data, but it still gives the NRFI an edge, as, clearly, fewer runs are scored in this ballpark (100 Park Factor is average).
As for the pitching matchups, Shota Imanaga was excellent in the first inning last season, holding opposing hitters to a .484 OPS. Now, the Dodgers raked (.887 OPS) in the first inning last season, though that OPS dropped slightly to .846 against lefties. Make no mistake, L.A. was one of the best YRFI teams a season ago, so it might be a struggle. Still, the NRFI bet is worth it as Imanaga owns a career 2.45 ERA vs the Dodgers in two clean starts, plus L.A. is without Mookie Betts due to illness, leaving a hole in the heart of the order.
Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto was no ace in the first inning last year (6.00 ERA), however, the righty diced the Cubs in two starts last year, spinning nine shutout innings. Despite a fair .754 first-inning OPS, Chicago also converted the NRFI in 74.07% of games.
This isn't a slam-dunk handicap, but there's more than enough evidence to suggest a NRFI is the right play for Game 1 of the MLB season on March 18 in Tokyo.
