My NRFI picks today feature a sneaky doubleheader NRFI pick in the Guardians-D-backs game, while my second pick guns for the YRFI in a guaranteed high-scoring affair between the A's and White Sox.
NRFI Pick Today: Guardians vs D-backs Game 1 (-110)
D-backs vs Guardians Odds -- Game Time 1:10 p.m. ET
This contest was scheduled for yesterday, but a rainout forced one of our NRFI GOATs, Ben Lively, into action today. Lively's been great for Cleveland and great for our NRFI pick today, sporting a 17-2 NRFI record. Lively's peripheral numbers check out, too, as the righty has allowed just two runs in 19 first-inning appearances this season (0.95 ERA). More importantly, he has yielded no homers, as the D-backs — specifically Joc Pederson — are quite homer-happy at the moment.
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Brandon Pfaadt (16-6 NRFI) is our other variable. The D-backs starter is reliable in the first inning (3.52 ERA), just not quite as clean as Lively. Luckily, the Guardians are much of a powerhouse in the first inning, batting just .232 as a club. The troubles boil down to the individual level, as Jose Ramirez owns a pedestrian .732 OPS in the first over the last month, while Steven Kwan has been terrible (.382 OPS) during that span.
There's a long day of baseball ahead for these two clubs, and I'll bet we see a sluggish start in Game 1 of the doubleheader. Lively will cook, while Pfaadt can push past the Guardians' slumping first-inning offense.
YRFI Pick Today: White Sox vs Athletics (-110)
White Sox vs Athletics Odds -- Game Time 3:37 p.m. ET
Neither the A's (58-57 YRFI) nor the Sox (68-48 NRFI) own particularly decisive YRFI records, so we're turning to some starting pitching trends to fuel our YRFI pick today.
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Oakland's Joey Estes (6-8 YRFI) is our main culprit, as the shaggy-haired righty has had his fair share of explosive first innings. Estes' 7.07 first-inning ERA speaks to that, as do his 20 hits allowed in just 14 innings. Where does all this offense come from? Well, opponents slash .328/.379/.623 against Estes in the first inning. That's the equivalent of every hitter turning into Shohei Ohtani in the first inning.
For Chicago, Davis Martin gets his second start of the year. He goofed the first one, allowing a YRFI and three runs after that. Martin messed up by allowing a two-run bomb last time around, which does not bode well for Oakland's power-heavy lineup featuring Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler. Rooker's been an animal in the first inning lately, slashing .412/.474/1.176 with four homers over the last 30 days. Given the state of Chicago's starting rotation, I recommend a bet on Rooker to homer today at +300. The odds reflect the likelihood, but the timing is very good for this bet, perhaps as a sprinkle, hail-mary parlay with the YRFI.
