My NRFI picks today start in the late window, where the Dodgers' and Mariners' starters have us poised for a NRFI outcome. After that, we'll lean on a YRFI in the D-backs vs Marlins game.
NRFI Pick Today: Mariners vs Dodgers (-125)
Mariners vs Dodgers Odds -- Game Time 10:10 p.m. ET
The Dodgers (75-70 YRFI) are normally a more reliable YRFI club, but not when Jack Flaherty is on the hill, and a YRFI is even less likely against Mariners ace righty Logan Gilbert.
Gilbert has produced a 22-3 NRFI record this season, limiting his first-inning ERA to 2.88 and holding opponents to a .468 OPS in the first inning. Los Angeles can rake, but that's a brutally low opponent OPS they'll now be contending with, which leads me to believe a NRFI is in the cards.
For the Dodgers, Flaherty (16-5 NRFI) should be well-equipped against a terrible M's offense. The righty posted a 3.86 ERA in the first inning this year with a 26-2 strikeout-walk ratio. He's got the swing-and-miss going, and that'll be a big boost against a Mariners lineup that bats .244 in the first inning.
YRFI Pick Today: D-Backs vs Marlins (-125)
D-backs vs Marlins Odds - Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
Hear me out: while the D-backs have yet to announce a starter for this contest, we can still count on a YRFI outcome. Here's why.
Firstly, Arizona has been the best offense in baseball for a while. Over the last 30 days, the Snakes own a .963 OPS in the first inning. Josh Bell, Joc Pederson, and Jake McCarthy have all generated a 1.000 OPS during that span, flexing the depth of this potent D-backs batting order.
Arizona (61-66 YRFI) is one of the better YRFI squads in baseball, and now it faces Roddery Munoz and his 10-5 YRFI record. The Marlins right-hander has endured a tough rookie season, yielding a 5.88 ERA and a whopping 2.5 HR/9. That's terrible, and his 7.83 ERA in the first inning is no better.
Even if Miami doesn't score in this one, the D-backs will clean things up with at least one run in the first inning.
