My NRFI picks for today start with a NRFI battle between the Orioles and Mets. Starters are the key in that one. Also, we've got a YRFI play in the Rockies game, where baseball's worst first-inning pitcher takes the hill.
NRFI Pick Today: Orioles vs Mets (-120)
Orioles vs Mets Odds -- Game Time 7:10 p.m. ET
For all the talent the Mets and O's orders possess, they sure don't like scoring in the first inning. Baltimore owns a 70-56 NRFI record, and New York is even better at 78-47 NRFI. Put em' together, and we've got a nice NRFI bet in the making.
For a guy with relatively pedestrian stuff, Dean Kremer (15-2 NRFI) finds lots of success in the first inning. He has allowed just four earned runs in 17 innings (2.12 ERA) while opponents slash .133/.200/.200. He's elite in these situations.
Veteran lefty Jose Quintana (16-8 NRFI) is reliable for the Mets, too. The Colombian has delivered three straight NRFIs for New York and maintains a 3.38 ERA in the first inning, where opponents bat just .214.
YRFI Pick Today: Rockies vs Nationals (-125)
Rockies vs Nationals Odds - Game Time: 6:45 pm ET
Cue the refrain: if the Rockies take the turf-y, bet the freakin' YRFI. I tried to make it rhyme.
Either way, we've got Austin Gomber on the mound for the Rox. While I predict he'll have a better game than expected, Gomber is still the YRFI GOAT at 11-12 YRFI with a 10.96 ERA in the first inning. That's still unfathomable, as opponents hit for a 1.057 OPS against him. That's like facing Aaron Judge multiple times in the first inning.
Meanwhile, Nats starter DJ Herz is better in the first inning (3.00 ERA), but he still has a beatable 3-9 YRFI record. Even if it's unlikely Herz yields a run, Gomber will do his job and allow a first-inning homer or something equivalent. He's basically hitting the YRFI at a 50/50 clip these days, so I recommend that pick today.
