My NRFI picks for today feature a surefire NRFI pick on the Mets and Padres, where two pitchers are ready to cook. After that, it's a YRFI play in the Jays-Angels game.
See our MLB NRFI picks today!
NRFI Pick Today: Mets vs Padres (-125)
Mets vs Padres Odds -- Game Time 9:40 p.m. ET
So, um, Luis Severino cooks? The right-hander is 22-2 NRFI on the season, boasting a remarkable 1.13 ERA as he guns for his 14th consecutive NRFI appearance Thursday vs the Padres. And I'd say it's likely he will find it, especially with Dylan Cease (16-10 NRFI) starting for the Padres.
Cease's first-inning numbers are wonky. He has yielded a 6.23 ERA, largely because of seven untimely homers in 26 outings, leaving opponents with a .490 SLG. Still, opposing hitters rock a .790 OPS, so it's not like he's getting absolutely walloped.
To add to it all, the Padres have been a weak first-inning offense lately. San Diego owns a .592 OPS in the first inning over the last 30 days, the 25th-best mark in baseball. That's on par with crummy teams like the White Sox and Tigers. And who ranks 26th in team OPS during that span? Yep, the Mets. We've got a NRFI match made in heaven Thursday.
YRFI Pick Today: Blue Jays vs Angels (-115)
Blue Jays vs Angels Odds -- Game Time 7:07 p.m. ET
Okay, some big trends suggest the YRFI is the play in this Angels-Jays contest. Firstly, these teams played just a week ago, with three of the four games seeing a YRFI. The Blue Jays have also been one of baseball's best first-inning offenses over the last month, producing a 1.060 team OPS. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be a menace for Angels starter Griffin Canning, who is quite ill-equipped for this lineup.
Canning is 13-12 YRFI this season, which bodes well for our bets but not for the sanity of Halos manager Ron Washington. Canning allows a 9.36 ERA while opposing hitters slash .358/.407/.697 in the first inning. Yep, that's like if every hitter in the first frame transforms into Shohei Ohtani. Sign me up for a YRFI pick.
