We're back with NRFI picks today for some NL playoff action. The Phillies and Mets series has been wild, so we're hitting a YRFI pick in that one. As for Dodgers-Padres, we're taking some good odds and betting against the grain with a YRFI.
See all our NRFI picks below for today's slate of postseason baseball.
YRFI Pick Today: Phillies vs Mets (+105)
Phillies vs Mets Odds -- Game Time 5:08 p.m. ET
The YRFI has hit in the first two games of this series, and I encourage MLB bettors to ride it for a third contest in a row. The Phils were an excellent YRFI club in the regular season (83-79), relying on their excellent offense to get it done. That's the recipe we hope for in Game 3 of the NLDS.
Sean Manaea takes the hill for New York after allowing a YRFI in his playoff start vs the Brewers. The lefty fixed himself after the first inning, but that early run was game-changing. While Manaea maintained a strong first-inning ERA (2.03) during the regular season, the playoffs are different, and the Phillies have deadly numbers against him.
Active Phillies hitters are batting .309 against Manaea with a .680 SLG and 1.027 OPS. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner have all homered off him. That's a dangerous predisposition for a club with a dangerous first-inning offense.
Conversely, Aaron Nola isn't fantastic against the Mets' offense either. Pete Alonso is 16-for-50 with five homers off Nola, so I'd watch for him to go yard, especially after his clutch performances in this short postseason.
NRFI Pick Today: Padres vs Dodgers (-120)
Padres vs Dodgers Odds -- Game Time 9:08 p.m. ET
This Dodgers-Padres series is on the verge of an explosion, but I'm leaning toward the NRFI despite all that, even with Walker Buehler on the mound. He's been terrible this year if you did not know.
When I say chaos, here's what I mean. MLB is reviewing an incident of Manny Machado deliberately throwing a ball at Dodgers manager Dave Roberts during Game 2. And after the game, an angry mob of fans robbed Buehler, our Game 3 starter, of his $100,000 watch. I hope it wasn't a good luck charm. Yet I'm still on the NRFI.
Firstly, Michael King is disgusting. Not only did he carve in the Wild Card round, but he also has solid numbers against Dodgers hitters, holding them to .235 BA and .779 OPS. He might need to walk Shohei Ohtani (1.681 OPS), but otherwise he is well-equipped.
Buehler is the reason we have essentially pick'em odds for this prop. His 6.00+ ERA during the regular season didn't help, but the right-hander is quite good vs active Padres hitters, holding them to a .594 OPS. If he pitches around Fernando Tatis Jr. (1.034 OPS), we are in good shape.
