My NRFI picks for today feature an AL East rematch between the Blue Jays and Orioles (two red-hot first-inning offenses) where a YRFI is bound to happen. The second pick is a NRFI in the AL West between the Astros and Rangers.
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YRFI Pick Today: Orioles vs Blue Jays (-110)
Orioles vs Blue Jays Odds -- Game Time 7:07 p.m. ET
Blue Jays righty Chris Bassitt made one start against the O's on July 30 (his last time out), and it ended in disaster, plus a YRFI. Baltimore tagged Bassitt for five runs on nine hits in just four innings (11.25 ERA), setting a nice little baseline for our YRFI bet. That broke a streak of three straight NRFIs for Bassitt, and he'll have to face his demons again, with a second consecutive start vs the Orioles.
Bassitt will have his work cut out for him, as Baltimore enters Tuesday's contest as one of the hottest offenses in baseball. The club has slashed .291/.418/.527 in the first inning over the last two weeks. That OBP is the fourth-best in baseball over that span, indicating the O's are clogging the bases and smacking guys in. Again, Bassitt's bad starts are usually death by a thousand hits, which is how the O's have gotten things done lately.
The Blue Jays have been an even better first-inning offense, though, feeding the fire for our YRFI bet. Toronto's .466 OBP leads baseball, while its 1.193 OPS ranks third, behind only New York and Arizona. Now the red-hot Jays face Grayson Rodriguez (7-13 YRFI), who has been very shaky of late. Rodriguez has yielded two straight YRFIs, growing his ERA to 5.40 with 21 hits allowed in 20 innings. The first inning is always a grind for him, and right now the Blue Jays are hitting better than they have all year.
As a side note, keep an eye on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He is 5-for-14 (1.043 OPS) lifetime vs Rodriguez and just won AL Player of the Week. I'd hammer his OVER 1.5 total bases (+105), which could be a nice parlay item with the YRFI (-110).
NRFI Pick Today: Astros vs Rangers (-110)
Astros vs Rangers Odds -- Game Time 8:05 p.m. ET
We start our NRFI with a commitment to left-hander Framber Valdez (16-3 NRFI) on the mound for Houston. While the Dominican isn't elite at preventing first-inning hits (.286 opponent BA), he has yielded zero first-inning homers, leaving opponents to slug just .343 all season. That's a big reason why he has such a pristine NRFI record and his 3.32 ERA plays sturdier than it is. Valdez has delivered four consecutive NRFIs, and the Rangers' paltry offense (even the top of their order with Marcus Semien and Corey Seager) won't come through with anything more than a single or two in the first.
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Then we've got Tyler Mahle making his season debut for the Rangers after a long recovery following Tommy John surgery a season ago. The right-hander pitched well in six rehab starts, yielding a 2.50 ERA while opponents generated a weak .485 OPS. Mahle also struck out 18 batters in 18 innings, indicating his stuff is on its way back to life. Now, MLB hitters present a greater challenge, but I'll bet Mahle is as confident and as inspired as ever when he steps foot on the mound at home for his first Rangers start.
NRFI is the way in this one. Lock it in.
