2025 MLB Opening Day is officially here, and so are my NRFI picks for the first slate of games.
The Jays and Orioles start it all at 3:07 p.m. ET. I'm going for the NRFI in that contest and the TK
NRFI Pick Today: Orioles vs Blue Jays (-115)
Orioles vs Blue Jays Odds - Game Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
I lean toward NRFI at Rogers Centre Thursday, first because these teams were in the top-12 for NRFIs last season. Baltimore was 91-73 NRFI in 2024, while the Jays were 90-72 NRFI. At home, the Jays were 43-38 NRFI, and the O's were 50-31 NRFI on the road. That road mark by BAL is important, as my biggest fear is that the O's crack Jays starter Jose Berrios early.
Berrios had an especially brutal Opening Day start in 2022 (0.1 IP, 4 ER), but he was terrible for that full season. "La Makina" has fully bounced back, and he was locked in for a 2.15 ERA this spring. That's all good for the NRFI. The Orioles are also without Gunnar Henderson for the season opener, weakening the top of their order.
Give me a quiet first inning in Toronto.
NRFI Pick Today: Tigers vs Dodgers (-160)
Tigers vs Dodgers Odds - Game Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
NRFI at -160? Well, that's because we've got Blake Snell vs Tarik Skubal. One could argue -160 isn't short enough.
Skubal diced his way to the Cy Young last season, and he'll roar into 2025 against a Dodgers top-of-the-order that is down bad. Sure, Shohei Ohtani is a problem, but Mookie Betts has been very ill for the last few weeks, and Freddie Freeman is battling a rib issue. Lifetime, the Dodgers are batting just .194 against Skubal, too.
On the flip side, there’s Snell, who’s held Detroit bats to just 5-for-29, a .172 average. Plenty of Tigers hitters have no experience against him, which usually gives the pitcher an edge. Listen, the Tigers aren't an offensive powerhouse, so I'll trust Snell to carve through a top four or five that features at least two lefties in Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter.
