I'm looking at today's best NRFI bets for April 16. Yesterday, I split my picks, and the winning game relied on strong batter vs. pitcher stats. That's a stat I'll consider as I shape my NRFI picks today.
YRFI Pick Today: Guardians vs Orioles (-110 at Sportsbook)
Guardians vs Orioles – Game Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Dean Kremer is a mess, and I have suspicions he could blow this whole game for Baltimore in the first inning, hence my YRFI bet today. Kremer owns an 8.14 ERA entering Wednesday, and his numbers in the first inning are even worse. The O's righty sports a 12.00 ERA in the first frame with four runs allowed in three innings and an opponent OPS of 1.071. That's like if every hitter he faced was prime Aaron Judge.
Cleveland isn't a powerhouse offense club, but the Guards have enough moxxy to plate a run vs Kremer. If not, I suspect the Orioles can score against Guardians starter Gavin Williams, against whom active Baltimore hitters are 4-for-12 with two homers (1.301 OPS).
NRFI Pick Today: Cubs vs Padres (-115 at Sportsbook)
Cubs vs Padres Odds – Game Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
I'll start on the Cubs side, where lefty Matt Boyd has continued his strong play from last season. Boyd owns a 1.59 ERA through three starts and three NRFIs along with it. His Cubs have also struggled in the first inning, batting just .181 en route to an MLB-leading 14-6 NRFI record. If you want NRFIs, the Cubs are your club.
Friars starter Nick Pivetta has also been sharp, rocking an identical 1.59 ERA with zero runs allowed in the first inning (hitters are 2-for-11). I also believe we can ignore the worst of his bloated split stats vs Cubs hitters, as most of the damage comes in low sample sizes or a ghastly 5-for-8 with two homers vs Justin Turner, whom I'm sure won't be going yard Wednesday.
