Today's best NRFI bets follow the same strategy as always: scope out a good pitching matchup, a cold offensive team, and some fair odds. That's where I'm at for April 14.
I'm starting with Paul Skenes vs the Nationals as my leading NRFI. He's always a good reason to bet no runs. After that, I'm counting on a matchup between Sonny Gray and Framber Valdez to bring us home.
NRFI Pick Today: Nationals vs Pirates (-135 at Sportsbook)
Nationals vs Pirates Odds – Game Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Skenes is an automatic NRFI bet at this point. The ace righty is 3-0 NRFI this year with just a single hit allowed in the first inning over 10 at-bats. He has started sharp every single game, and I expect nothing less from Skenes against a Washington squad with a 9-6 NRFI record.
The Nationals go with rookie Brad Lord on the hill Monday. Lord was solid in his first start, tossing five innings of one-run ball. He walked four and struck out four, but that didn't bite him. Lord also yielded just one hit in the first inning.
I assume the books are wary of Lord, since Skenes games normally faced longer NRFI odds than -135. To me, that's all the more reason to lay a wager in a pitching matchup that is a combined 4-0 NRFI this season.
NRFI Pick Today: Astros vs Cardinals (-125 at Sportsbook)
Astros vs Cardinals Odds – Game Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
Our NRFI bet is in good hands because the Astros and Cardinals haven't hit well in the first inning. Houston is batting just .140 with a 13-2 offensive NRFI record. The 'Stros are not a threat to score in the first, while the Cards are comparably impotent with a .222 BA.
Cardinals pitching has let the club down in the first inning, but I don't see that happening Monday. Sonny Gray is 2-1 NRFI this year with a sharp track record vs the Astros. Gray holds them to a career .607 OPS and zero homers in 81 at-bats. The .309 SLG tells me we won't have to worry about the longball.
With that baseline and fair odds, the Cardinals-Astros NRFI is my second bet of the day.
