We're halfway through the week in MLB, so we'll gladly hop on a few NRFI picks today. The Guardians-White Sox matchup offers great NRFI value, while the Yanks-Reds showdown is a perfect YRFI play.
NRFI Pick Today: White Sox vs Guardians (-115)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
There are a couple of ways you can slice this NRFI best bet, starting with Chicago's overall suckage when it comes to first-inning offense. The ChiSox are the second-best NRFI team in baseball (58-29) and own a .221 BA in the first inning. That's a perfect baseline for our bet.
Let's zip to the starting pitchers. Gavin Williams makes his season debut for Cleveland, and the Sox are a perfect opponent for a soft entry. The right-hander had a rough beginning to his rehab stint in Triple-A, but wrapped it up nicely with two earned runs over his final nine innings. He's ready for a NRFI.
On the other end, Eric Fedde (13-4 NRFI) starts for Chicago, and thank god it's him because the Sox aren't heavy on reliable arms these days. Fedde and Garret Crochet are the dudes in this rotation. I've backed them many times for NRFI plays and won big.
YRFI Pick Today: Reds vs Yankees (-125)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:05 pm ET
Ah, the sportsbooks are onto us here, raising the line and setting -125 odds for the YRFI bet. Bastards. Even so, I'm cool with betting the YRFI in Reds-Yankees — it now also makes good parlay fodder.
As always, the starters make this a great play. Carlos Rodon (7-10 YRFI) has come completely unglued lately, so his first-inning ERA is up to 7.94. It's all very ugly, as opponents own a 1.003 OPS in the first and have crushed six homers. Rodon's struggles are nearly enough for our whole bet; it just happens Andrew Abbott moves the needle in our direction, too.
The Reds starter is 7-9 YRFI this season with a 5.62 ERA in the first inning. He's not on Rodon level yet, but opponents are slugging .565 against him in the first. Oh, by the way, the Yankees are the second-best YRFI (49-38) club in baseball and own a .390 OBP in the first frame.
Lock it in.
