The NRFI picks today are calling my name. We'll start in Washington, where we can beat the books with a sneaky NRFI bet on a polarizing pitcher. Then we'll gun for a YRFI bet in a beauty of a matchup between the Marlins and Rockies.
See our MLB NRFI picks today!
NRFI Pick Today: Yankees vs Nationals (-105)
Yankees vs Nationals Odds -- Game Time 6:45 p.m. ET
While -105 odds don't represent scorching hot value, this bet allows us to beat the books in a high-profile matchup. And the blueprint begins on the mound with today's starting pitchers.
Normally, the Yankees (74-58 YRFI) are an intense YRFI club, but their showdown with the Nats (80-52 NRFI), an uber-reliable NRFI squad, evens us out a bit. And the sportsbooks also think Patrick Corbin (20-6 NRFI) on the mound means a guaranteed slugfest. That might be true in past seasons, but ol' Patty has figured himself out this season, at least in the first inning.
Corbin owns a respectable 3.81 ERA in the first inning this year. He's not flawless, so we'll have to get lucky, which I think is very possible against the Bronx Bombers. Why? Juan Soto and Aaron Judge are a combined 1-for-12 lifetime vs Corbin, suggesting they may not have a good read on him this time either.
Then Gerrit Cole (9-2 NRFI) shoves for the Yankees, searching for his 10th consecutive NRFI performance. He should have it easy against the Nats, who bat just .219 in the first inning.
Feel free to parlay this bet with a Yankees runline play, as suggested in today's MLB expert picks.
YRFI Pick Today: Marlins vs Rockies (-135)
Marlins vs Rockies Odds -- Game Time 8:40 p.m. ET
This mashup almost brings a tear to my eye, as Roddery Munoz (11-5 YRFI) meets the Rockies (71-60 YRFI), combining two of the best YRFI elements in all of baseball. Generally, the Marlins pitching staff has let the club down, rocking a 5.58 ERA in the first, leading to tons of YRFI games (71-61 YRFI). That number makes the Fish the second-worst run-prevention club in baseball. Who is the worst? Yep, you guessed it: the Rockies, with their 6.32 first-inning ERA.
Both staffs struggle to control first-inning damage, and Munoz is the poster boy for wild innings. The righty has yielded a 7.88 ERA in the first inning this season, allowing eight homers and a 1.096 OPS in 16 appearances. Now picture that statline at Coors Field. Oie.
Cal Quantrill (4.56 ERA), the Rox's best pitcher, starts Tuesday, but he's no saint as his ERA suggests. Things have been worse lately, as Quantrill owns a 7.50 ERA in his last four outings, making him very vulnerable in this contest.
