For Monday's MLB expert picks, we chose to dive into a close AL East matchup between the Orioles and Blue Jays. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. at Rogers Centre.
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Check out my Orioles vs Blue Jays preview and MLB expert picks for June 3 below:
Orioles vs Blue Jays Computer Pick & Game Odds
Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
Blue Jays | -110 | -1.5 (+140) | O8.0 (-110) |
Orioles | -110 | +1.5 (-160) | U8.0 (-110) |
Orioles vs Blue Jays Computer Pick: Orioles moneyline, Over 8.0 runs
The computer's got its mind made up. Scroll down to see how I've handicapped this one.
Orioles vs Blue Jays Notable Players To Watch
SP Kevin Gausman (TOR): Normally the Jays' ace, Gausman's been out of whack through 11 starts. His -0.3 bWAR isn't great, though he has dropped to allowing 9.9 H/9, which is no longer a career-high. Gausman played six years in Baltimore and has always struggled against the O's. More on that later.
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL): It's comical how good Mouncastle hits against the Jays. In 54 games, the 27-year-old has 15 homers, 43 RBIs, and a .984 OPS vs the Blue Jays, all career-highs against one team.
Orioles vs Blue Jays Preview & Expert Pick — Orioles ML (-110)
For a top-tier competitor, Gausman can't fire up the engine against his former squad. Since changing jerseys, the right-hander hasn't pitched well against Baltimore. The Jays are 1-4 SU when Gausman starts against the O's, and he allows a 4.61 ERA and 1.427 WHIP.
Like in most bad Gausman starts, the O's get the bat on him early and single/double him to death. The longball hasn't been much of a factor in these outings. But the Orioles always seem to get the job done. This ML bet looks better, especially given the value, and Toronto's poor, injured bullpen offers Baltimore a chance to dominate the later innings, too.
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Orioles vs Blue Jays Preview & Expert Pick No. 2 — OVER 8.0 runs (-110)
We never want to pour too much dependence onto one guy, but Gausman brings more good news: the OVER is 9-2 when the righty starts for Toronto. It all began in his few outings of the year, when he got lit up early and the game unraveled. I foresee a similar situation in this O's opener.
One bad inning is all it takes. Perhaps Baltimore takes the lead, holds it, and Toronto hammers a few harmless runs against the O's bullpen. We've seen the Jays follow that script all season.
Key players to my OVER? Watch Mountcastle. We know how he dominates the Jays, and you can get him on the OVER 1.5 total bases at -105 odds. I'd scope Anthony Santander's OVER 1.5 bases at +125; he's got two homers off Gausman and has hit 15 career homers against the Jays in 69 games.