After spending nearly a decade with the Philadelphia Phillies, Cole Hamels will face his former team for the first time as a Chicago Cub tonight. The Cubs were able to even the series with some late heroics in a 3-2 win last night and they’re 7-2 SU in nine games this season with Hamels as the starter.
The Cubs opened as -150 favorites with a total at 10.5.
Standout Stats
- Cole Hamels has made four starts at home this season and although he’s given up four home runs in those games, he’s only allowed eight earned runs over 26.1 innings. The Cubs are 7-2 SU in his nine starts this season but are only 4-5 against the runline.
- Rookie Cole Irvin gets the nod for the Phillies and this will be the third start of his major league career. In his first two starts, he’s been solid with a 2.77 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. In his most recent start vs the Rockies, he worked six innings and gave up five hits and three earned runs as the Phillies won 5-4.
- The Chicago Cubs have the best home record in the National League all while only averaging 4.3 runs per game, which ranks 20th in MLB. The reason why they can get away with that is their pitching staff has been incredible at Wrigley Field with a 2.46 ERA and the opposition batting .209.
- Both teams will be facing lefty starters today and the Phillies have had more success in that department than the Cubs this season. The Phillies are hitting .244 with a .731 OPS and 62 RBIs but have only hit 11 home runs in 386 at-bats. The Cubs, on the other hand, have clubbed lefties with 17 homers in 325 at-bats but are batting .234.
- A lot of UNDER trends coming into this matchup as it has hit in five of the Phillies’ last six games on the road (avg. combined score: 6.5) and in nine of their last 13 games overall. The UNDER has also hit in six of the Cubs’ last seven games at home and in nine of their last 13 overall.
My Best Bet for Phillies vs Cubs
UNDER 10.5
This just feels like too many runs in a game where both teams have struggled to knock around left-handers. Hamels has pitched pretty well in home starts and while I loathe using the “revenge” factor when capping games, I do think he’ll have a great outing vs his former team.
I also think with Irvin having such limited experience in the majors, it will take at least two times through the Cubs order before they figure him out and then the Phils would likely go to their bullpen. If the total was 8.5 or 9, I’d likely stay away from it but 10.5 is a great line to get for this matchup.
