The Philadelphia Phillies have won each of Aaron Nola’s last four trips to the mound, yet they are a +108 underdog today against the host Chicago Cubs, who are coming back at -128. Countering for the Cubs is Jon Lester, who has allowed just one earned run at Wrigley Field this season. Today’s total opened at 7.5 runs.
Standout Stats
- Philadelphia is 9-6 SU and 7-8 ATS over its last 15 games. The Phillies are just 10-11 in road games this season.
- Chicago is 10-5 SU and 7-8 ATS through its last 15 contests. The Cubs have been strong at home with a 17-7 record this year.
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Phillies’ last 17 matches with an average combined score of 8.24. Similarly, the total has gone UNDER in nine of the Cubs’ last 14 with an average combined score of 7.86.
- The Phillies are 6-4 through Aaron Nola’s 10 trips to the mound this season, winning his last four outings, and he is 4-0 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. He has four quality starts this year.
- Nola is averaging the highest K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 rates of his career and also has a HR/FB percentage of 20.9 that is the 20th highest among starters who have thrown at least 20 innings.
- Opponents are hitting .287 against him and he has the lowest soft-hit percentage and highest hard-hit percentage of his career. The Cubs rank 22nd in the majors in hard-hit percentage vs RHP this month.
- Nola has had a rough go on the road this year, sporting a 6.14 ERA and a .288 opponent batting average while surrendering six home runs in three outings.
- The Cubs are 5-3 in Jon Lester starts in 2019 and he is 3-2 with a 2.09 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He has five quality starts this season.
- He has the lowest BB/9 rate in his career at just 1.88, while also having the lowest HR/9 rate since the 2015 season.
- Opponents are hitting .262 against Lester, which is his highest opponent batting average since the 2012 season. Of the contact against, he has his highest hard-hit percentage and lowest soft-hit percentage. The Phillies rank eighth in hard-hit percentage vs LHP this month.
- Lester has allowed just one earned run over his 19.2 innings pitched at Wrigley Field this season, sporting a 0.46 ERA, but opponents are hitting .289 against him over that span. He holds a 1.35 ERA and .167 opponent batting average in four day starts.
- The Phillies are 4-8 against left-handed starters this season, ranking 10th in batting average and sixth in runs scored against southpaws. In May, they sit fifth in batting average and eighth in runs scored against LHP.
- The Cubs are 23-14 against right-handed starters this year, sitting fifth in batting average and seventh in runs scored vs righties. This month, Chicago sits 11th in batting average and seventh in runs scored against RHP.
My Best Bet for Philadelphia vs Chicago
Chicago moneyline
Although Lester has a higher opponent batting average at home vs the road, he has surrendered just one earned run at Wrigley this season and has been remarkable under the sun. Additionally, the Cubs have hit well against RHP and Nola hasn’t been overly impressive on the road, allowing six home runs and sporting a 6.14 ERA.
Jon Lester (CHC) has allowed just one earned run at home this season.home The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Philadelphia’s last 17 games.away Chicago is 10-5 SU and 7-8 ATS in its last 15 games.home
