The Atlanta Braves, losers in four of their last five, play host to the Philadelphia Phillies, Sportsbooks in four of their last six, at SunTrust Park. The Braves have won seven of the 12 meetings with their NL East rivals this year and opened this game as a -150 favorite with Philadelphia coming back at +130. Toeing the rubber are Vince Velasquez and Kevin Gausman with the total Sportsbook at 8.5 runs.
- The Phillies are 1-8 SU in their last nine road games with Vince Velasquez as the starter.
- The Braves are 10-2 SU and ATS in their last 12 home games vs their division.
- The Braves have gone UNDER 8.5 runs in six of Kevin Gausman’s last eight starts.
Phillies vs Braves Game Center
Velasquez having a terrible month
Vince Velasquez (9-11, 4.50 ERA) has been roughed up down the stretch of the MLB season. The 26-year-old had a middling 4.05 ERA at the end of August and has seen that balloon up to 4.50 heading into tonight’s contest as he has been tagged for 12 earned runs in just 11 innings this month. Additionally, the righty has surrendered three or more earned runs in five of his last seven starts. The numbers have been slightly better on the road this year, though, as he has a respectable 3.64 ERA in his 14 away outings, but the Phillies are just 4-10 SU in those games.
Velasquez gets the ball for the fifth time this season against the Braves and is looking to put some rough starts behind him. Philadelphia is 0-4 SU when the righty makes the trip to the mound vs Atlanta and he holds a 7.41 ERA in those appearances. In two starts at SunTrust Park, he was ambushed for a combined seven earned runs in 8.2 innings for a 7.27 ERA. The Phillies are 2-6 SU in Velasquez’s eight career starts vs the Braves and he sports a 4.60 ERA.
Gausman has been good in his new colors
The Braves acquired Kevin Gausman (10-10, 3.92 ERA) from the Orioles at the MLB trade deadline, and he has pitched well with his new club. Atlanta is 6-2 SU with the Colorado native on the mound, and he sports an impressive 2.61 ERA over that span. The numbers have been even better at SunTrust Park, as the Braves are a perfect 4-0 SU behind Gausman and his ERA is 2.45. The 27-year-old has had a rough September, allowing a home run in each of his three starts, and has a 4.41 ERA through the month.
This is the second time this season and in Gausman’s career that he faces Philadelphia. The righty toed the slab vs the Phillies just ahead of the all-star break when he was still a member of the Orioles. The outing wasn’t a pretty one as he was tagged for five earned runs on 12 hits, lasting just five innings in a 5-4 loss. Phillies batters have a combined .301 average vs Gausman over 83 total at-bats.
UNDER is trending between Braves and Phillies
The Braves and Phillies haven’t seen each other since late May when they contested a three-game series with an average combined score of 3.66 and Sportsbook has tonight’s game Sportsbook at 8.5 runs. Since Gausman joined the Braves at the end of July, the total has gone UNDER 8.5 runs in six of his eight starts. Meanwhile, the Phillies have gone UNDER 8.5 runs in seven of Velasquez’s last 11 road outings. Lastly, both clubs rank in the middle of the pack in the majors for runs scored in the last 30 days, with Atlanta sitting in 14th and Philadelphia in 17th.
My take on Braves vs Phillies
I think the total is a little volatile with all the trends pointing toward the UNDER but two wild cards on the mound, so I like the Braves -1.5. Atlanta has won seven of the 12 meetings with Philadelphia this season with an average winning margin of five, including winning four of six at SunTrust Park with an average winning margin of 5.25. Additionally, the Braves are 4-0 SU and ATS at home behind Gausman with an average winning margin of 4.75, while the Phillies are 1-8 SU in Velasquez’s last nine road starts with an average losing margin of 3.25.
