The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking to match a season high with their fifth win in a row but are huge +225 underdogs with the host Houston Astros coming back at -270. A pitchers’ duel could be in the making with Trevor Williams and Gerrit Cole getting the ball. The total opened at 8.5 runs.
Standout Stats
- Houston is 5-8 SU and 6-7 ATS over its last 13 contests and more recently it is 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in its last eight. The Astros are 27-11 at Minute Maid Park this season.
- Pittsburgh is 6-9 SU and ATS through its last 15 games but is currently riding a four-game winning streak. The Pirates are 19-21 on the road this year.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of Houston’s last 12 matches with an average combined score of 10.67. Similarly, the total has gone OVER in eight of the Pirates’ last 12 with an average combined score of 11.83.
- The Pirates are 7-3 through Trevor Williams’ 10 trips to the mound this year and he is 2-1 with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He has six quality starts as well.
- He has the lowest BB/9 rate in his career and the highest K/9 rate since his rookie season in 2016. Despite a 4.12 ERA, his FIP is much more respectable at 3.56.
- Opponents are hitting .258 against Williams and of the contact against, 36.4 percent is hard-hit and 17.9 percent is soft-hit. The Astros rank 13th in hard-hit percentage vs RHP this month.
- Williams has a 2.83 ERA and a .248 opponent batting average over his six road outings this year. He has higher K/9 and BB/9 rates while having a lower HR/9 rate as well. However, he also has higher soft-hit and hard-hit percentages compared to his home appearances.
- The Astros are 10-6 behind Gerrit Cole this season and he is 6-5 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. He has 12 quality starts as well, including his last five outings in a row.
- He has the highest K/9 and HR/9 rates of his career while having the lowest BB/9 rate since the 2015 season.
- Opponents are hitting .206 against Cole and he has a career-low 1.02 WHIP. Of the batted balls against, 35.8 percent are hard-hit and 19.3 percent are soft-hit. The Pirates sit 17th in hard-hit percentage vs RHP in June.
- Cole has a 3.75 ERA and a .190 opponent batting average in his eight home starts this year. He averages higher K/9 and HR/9 rates with a lower BB/9 as well. Additionally, he has higher soft-hit and hard-hit percentages at home.
- Pittsburgh’s bullpen ERA ranks 24th at 5.51 in June, while Houston’s bullpen is slightly worse at 26th with a 5.73 ERA.
- The Pirates are 28-29 against right-handed starters this year and are third in batting average and 18th in runs scored vs righties. In June, Pittsburgh leads the majors with a .302 batting average and is sixth in runs scored vs RHP.
- The Astros are 32-24 against right-handed starters in 2019, ranking 10th in batting average and runs scored vs RHP. This month, Houston is 24th in batting average and 17th in runs scored against righties.
My Best Bet for Pittsburgh vs Houston
UNDER 8.5
Pittsburgh has been hitting RHP well this month but Cole has been terrific at quieting opposing bats at Minute Maid Park, limiting teams to a .190 batting average. Meanwhile, Williams is far better on the road compared to PNC Park, posting a solid 2.83 ERA and holding opponents to a .248 batting average.
Both bullpens have been struggling recently, but the two starters have the ability to pitch deep into games. Lastly, Houston has had 15 home games with totals set at 8.5 this season and 10 have gone UNDER.
