The Pittsburgh Pirates’ season may be all but over but they can still stick it to a divisional rival when they kick off their final three-game series vs the Milwaukee Brewers. The Pirates are fresh off a series loss to the Cardinals but have taken nine of 14 games against the Brewers in 2018 so Milwaukee will need to lean on left-hander Gio Gonzalez to keep Pittsburgh in check. This is Gonzalez’s second start in a Brewers uniform since being acquired just over a week ago. Milwaukee opened as a -125 fave with a total set at 8.5.
- The Brewers are 8-3 SU in 11 games in September.
- The Pirates are 4-11 SU in their last 15 games on the road.
- The OVER has hit in the last four games in this matchup.
Pirates vs Brewers Game Center
Who has the Pitching Edge?
Gio Gonzalez is the newest face in the Brewers rotation and was solid in his debut, hurling 5.2 innings of three-hit ball and giving up one run in a 4-3 victory. But prior to joining the Brew Crew, Gonzalez was in a huge funk as he had won only two of his previous 14 starts since June 15 and sported a whopping 6.32 ERA. It should be interesting to see if he can carry over that momentum to this contest but if he can just get past the fifth inning, Milwaukee could be in the driver’s seat to win this game. Brewers relievers are taking care of the latter innings for the squad as they own a league-best 2.47 ERA in September, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that Milwaukee is 8-3 SU in 11 games this month.
As for the Pirates, they’ve got strikeout master Chris Archer, who has been up and down since his arrival with the Bucs. Archer is coming off a decent showing at home vs the Marlins in which he tossed six innings, yielding five hits and three runs in a 5-3 victory while punching out eight batters. Since he has donned the black and yellow, he owns a 5.24 ERA and when he faced the Brewers at Miller Park on August 26, he allowed six runs off of seven hits in a 7-4 loss. Considering that Brew Crew batters are hitting a collective .317 off him over 126 at-bats, it could be another long day for the 29-year-old.
Road Games are not Favorable for the Pirates
In order to be considered a good team in MLB, you have to be able to win on the road so that’s probably why the Pirates will be on the outside looking in come October. Pittsburgh has dropped 11 of its last 15 games on the road and owns the fourth-worst road record in the NL at 32-39. The Pirates rank 21st in MLB in runs scored over the last 30 days and have dropped nine of their last 14 games at Miller Park.
However, for what it’s worth, the Pirates have won nine of 14 games in this matchup this season so they can’t be counted out.
Totals Bettors Should Eye The OVER
The total opened at 8.5 in this divisional tilt and bettors looking for an edge may want to consider the OVER. The OVER has hit in the last four games in this matchup with an average combined score of 11.7 runs per game.
With that stat in mind, I’m on the OVER in this game as there are too many conflicting trends to suggest that the Brewers could let this one slip through their fingers. Both pitchers own ERAs that would be awful in a rec softball game and Archer hasn’t shown in his brief time with the Pirates that he can consistently shut down batting orders on the road. Over Gio’s last 15 starts, he has allowed five or more earned runs in eight of them. Yikes!
