We're deep into the playoffs so let's fire up some MLB player prop picks. I'm fading a slumping star in Aaron Judge and then betting on my boy Kerry Carpenter to deliver another massive hit.
Here are my two MLB player prop picks today with breakdowns:
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Aaron Judge UNDER 1.5 Total Bases (-145)
Yankees vs Royals Odds - Game Time: 8:08 pm ET
Judge is 1-for-11 this postseason, and I'm ready to declare his struggles a big problem for the Yankees. His at-bats lack confidence and Judge has sat down on strikes five times so far. This New York lineup relies heavily on their captain, and with him struggling, it won't be easy for the club to move past the ALDS.
As you might've guessed, I'm fading Judge on the UNDER 1.5 total bases today at -145 odds. This UNDER has cashed in all three Yankees playoff games, and today's pitching matchup won't help him out at all either.
Judge has been terrible in his career vs Royals starter Michael Wacha, batting just 1-for-20 with 12 strikeouts. 12 strikeouts in 20 at-bats! That is just unbelievably terrible, and I'll bet Wacha gets his number again Thursday.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Kerry Carpenter OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-165)
Tigers vs Guardians Odds - Game Time: 6:08 pm ET
This is my best bet of the day. Carpenter had the massive homer in Game 2, but followed it up with an 0'fer in Game 3. He's bouncing back in Game 4. Mark my words.
Firstly, I just don't think this Guardians pitching staff can keep "Kerry Bonds" down for long. He's the Tigers' best hitter and one of the hottest bats in baseball right now. On top of that, Carpenter is 3-for-6 lifetime vs Guardians starter Tanner Bibee with a homer, a double, and three RBIs. He already has his number, and after Carpenter struck fear into the Guardians staff with his Game 2 homer off Emmanuel Clase, I'll gladly bet the OVER 0.5 total bases. It's just one lousy hit!
