So you just discovered Y/NRFI betting? Step into my office. Close the door. I've got a big secret for you.
The Colorado Rockies are your key to a string of massive successes in YRFI betting. Yes, the Rox, the depressing purple club that makes its home in the thin air of Coors Field. But hidden beneath all the straight-up suckage is a YRFI goldmine.
Through 55 games, Colorado is 35-20 YRFI, the best record in MLB. The Padres are next closest club at 34-25. It's not really close; the Rox are the YRFI GOAT. Let me show you why.
Yes, Yes: Behind The Rox YRFI Success
There really aren't many scenarios where you should not bet the Rockies to see a first-inning run in their game. As always, consider the opponent. For example, the Nationals, baseball's best NRFI squad (37-17 NRFI) might not tickle your fancy. Other than that, though the Rox are basically matchup-proof, crushing the YRFI in all scenarios.
Rockies YRFI Success
- Home: 17-10
- Road: 18-10
So the Rox always cash this bet. Why? The Rockies '84 wRC+ ranks 28th in MLB, suggesting this is one of the weakest offensive units in the game. Let's peel another layer.
Run Prevention
The simple answer is that the Rockies are a flaming disaster at preventing runs in the first inning. You can check out our full Y/NRFI betting report, but I'll save you some time and highlight the Rockies' 0.91 runs allowed per game in the first inning. That's tied with Houston for the worst in baseball.
Colorado's starters own an MLB-worst 6.67 FIP, indicating the club is terrible at preventing walks and homers, two daggers in the first inning. Opposing offenses also own a .400 OBP against Rox pitchers in the first frame. We'll detail which pitchers are especially terrible in a moment.
Weirdly Good Hitting
We established the Rockies' offense stinks, yet Colorado generates a 102 wRC+ in the first inning. The Rox .274 first-inning BA ranks sixth in baseball and the club's 31 first-inning runs are seventh in MLB.
The Rox love hitting in the opening inning. After that, the lineup forgets how to play baseball. It's enough to give the front office an aneurysm, but it's lovely for sharp YRFI bettors.
Key Pitchers In Rockies YRFI Bets
- Ryan Feltner - 11.45 ERA, 14 ERs in 11 starts
- Ty Blach - 18.00 ERA, 10 ERs in 5 starts
- Austin Gomber - 7.20 ERA, 8 ERs in 10 starts
Key Hitters In Rockies YRFI Bets
- Ryan McMahon - 4 HRs, 1.029 OPS in 47 PAs
- Brendon Rodgers - .952 OPS in 21 PAs
- Ezequiel Tovar - .825 OPS in 47 PAs
My strategy to betting Y/NRFI
I've found lots of success in Y/NRFI betting this year. Here are a few tips for research before placing your bet:
Check Each Club's Y/NRFI Record - It seems simple, but check how each club has performed this year. If you're a keen NRFI bettor, hone in on matchups between two NRFI stalwarts. More times than not, these teams are stuck in their ways.
Analyze Starting Pitchers - Y/NRFI is beautiful because you don't have to account for bullpens. Filter through each starter's first-inning ERA, their club's YNRFI when they pitch, and batter vs pitcher splits for the top of the order.
First-Inning Offense - Use baseball databases (like FanGraphs and Baseball Reference) to see how each offense fares in the first inning. Usually, these trends are very decisive. I also like filtering offense by two-week increments to see which clubs have stormed out of the gate or faltered in the first inning lately.