I nailed one of my MLB home run props yesterday, getting a +550 Bregman bomb. So, let's go back to the stats for a few homer picks today.
With selections on Rowdy Tellez and Juan Soto, here are my two home run prop picks for June 4th:
Pick 1: Rowdy Tellez To Homer (+700)
Dodgers vs Pirates Matchup Preview - Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
Rowdy Tellez has been worth -0.6 WAR this year, with a .246 slugging percentage, a .505 OPS, and just one homer. Great home run prop, Mitch! But, honestly, I think there's some value here at +700. Tellez has five hits in his last four games, including a three-hit game against the Blue Jays, last time out.
And, crucially, he somehow mashes against Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow. In 14 career at-bats against Glasnow, Tellez has four hits and two homers, good for a .786 slug. While Glasnow has been quite good this year, he has allowed a homer in three of his last four outings.
Pick 2: Juan Soto To Homer (+250)
Twins vs Yankees Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:05 pm ET
A lot of attention in Yankee Land has been on Aaron Judge's crazy hot streak. But, Juan Soto is having himself a great time, too. Soto has five homers in his last 12 games, raising his slugging percentage on the year to .614.
Soto also faces the perfect pitcher for a home run bet tonight, in Minnesota's Bailey Ober. The Twins righty has allowed five homers in his last three starts, including three bombs in his latest outing.
I also love a Soto over 0.5 RBI bet, as the Yankees slugger has 12 RBI in his last 10 games, including three on Sunday. You can bet on over 0.5 Soto RBI at +125.