We're taking a later game for our MLB same-game parlay on Friday, May 31, when the Padres head to Kansas City for a showdown with the Royals. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET.
Here's my MLB same-game parlay for this late-night showdown, where I analyze three parlay legs:
Padres vs Royals Same-Game Parlay: May 31
The Game: Padres vs Royals - 8:10 p.m. ET
Bet | Odds |
---|---|
Dylan Cease OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | -175 |
Ha-Seong Kim OVER 0.5 total bases | -170 |
Padres ML | -125 |
Overall | +275 |
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 1: Cease OVER 5.5 Strikeouts
This total is burning a hole in my brain (for a good reason). It's way too low! And I'm all over Cease's OVER 5.5 strikeouts, and the -175 odds make it the perfect first leg for our parlay.
Cease is quietly an NL Cy Young contender, and he's crushed this strikeout prop total. The righty has hit the OVER in nine of 11 starts, which bodes very well. While the Royals don't strike out a ton as a team, they have some whiff merchants in their lineup, like MJ Melendez and Nelson Velasquez.
Beyond Cease's heater right now, the Padres starter also has massive historical success vs KC. Over the last two years (six starts), Cease has struck out at least six batters in each outing. I don't know what more to tell you; this is the move for Friday's MLB slate.
All signs point toward an OVER for the split king.
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 2: Kim OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-170)
I'll try not to whine about the value, but Kim is the best play for a surefire total bases OVER. The Padres shortstop isn't racking up the hits he did last year, but his underlying metrics suggest he is better than average.
I love Kim's approach (32 BBs, 40 Ks); he also has some power potential with seven homers. But for Saturday, all we need is a measly base knock. I like the matchup vs Michael Wacha, and Kim has cashed this OVER in six of his last 10 contests. The stars will align with our first two chalky legs, leaving it all up to the third and final step.
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 3: Padres ML (-125)
Say what you want about the Padres' cohesion as a team, but the club dials in when Cease takes the hill. San Diego is 7-4 SU when Cease starts, and if the rest of our parlay goes to plan, then he'll have another great outing Friday.
Beyond Cease, two SDP stars boast great numbers against Wacha. Fernando Tatis Jr. is 2-for-5 with a homer, while Luis Arraez, the base-hit king, flashes plenty of pop against the Royals righty, batting 4-for-13 with two home runs and five RBIs.
To take it one step further, the Royals bullpen has slipped over the past 30 days, producing a 4.78 ERA, the 24th-best mark in baseball during that span.