It's a new week, which means it's time for a new MLB same-game parlay.
I'm breaking down the Pirates vs Brewers contest today, with a 7:40 p.m. ET. Here's my MLB same-game parlay for this NL Central matchup, where I break down the three parlay legs I need to hit:
Brewers vs Pirates Same-Game Parlay: May 13
The Game: Pirates vs Brewers - 7:40 p.m. ET
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brewers Moneyline | -145 |
| Run Total Over 8.5 | Even |
| Willy Adames Over 0.5 Hits | -215 |
| Overall | +300 |
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 1: Brewers Moneyline
Mitch Keller is coming off the best start of his season, pitching a complete-game one-run performance against the Angels. But, that outing is an outlier.
Keller had allowed at least three runs in each of his lsat three outings before the Angels start, seeing his ERA rise from 4.5 to 5.18 in that time. He’s also allowed a homer in five-straight starts, and faces a Brewers team that’s sixth in baseball in dingers.
But, most importantly, Keller gets rocked by these Brewers batters, historically. Milwaukee hitters have a 1.013 collective OPS against Keller in 72 career at-bats.
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 2: Over 8.5 Runs
Mitch Keller vs Brewers starts have been pretty safe overs in recent years. The average total score of the last five Keller vs Brewers starts has been 11.5 total runs. That's WELL over 8.5, at least by my count.
Add in the fact that Colin Rea has been pretty hit-or-miss this year, and I think we'll get runs on both sides. The Brewers starter has allowed four or more runs in two of his last three starts. And, the total has gone over 8.5 in four of his last six starts, too.
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 3: Willy Adames To Get A Hit
Willy Adames is having himself a season. After hitting .217 last year, his batting average sits at .258 to start 2024. He's got seven hits in his last seven games and owns this matchup against Mitch Keller, too. The Brewers shortstop is hitting .300 in his career against Keller, with an .883 OPS in 20 career at-bats.
If you're buying Adames to have a bit day, it should give you more confidence of a Brewers win, too. Milwaukee is 9-2 in games where Adames gets more than one hit this year.
