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Pitchers’ Duel in the Making in Series Opener Between Padres and Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers are a perfect 5-0 this season when Clayton Kershaw gets the ball and he does just that tonight with the Dodgers a -160 favorite in their series opener against the visiting San Diego Padres, who come back at +140. Chris Paddack counters for San Diego and has had a quality start in each of his seven trips to the mound this year. Tonight’s total opened at 7 runs.

Padres vs Dodgers Game Center

Standout Stats

  • San Diego is 6-8 SU and 7-7 ATS over its last 14 games. The Padres are 12-8 on the road this season.
  • Los Angeles is 12-5 SU and 9-8 ATS through its last 17 contests. The Dodgers have a sparkling 17-6 record at home this season.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Dodgers’ last 13 matches with an average combined score of 8.31. Meanwhile, the total has gone UNDER in seven of the Padres’ last 13 contests with an average combined score of 9.46.
  • Los Angeles has won all five of Clayton Kershaw’s trips to the mound this season and he is 2-0 with a 3.31 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. Four of his five appearances have been quality starts.
  • He is averaging 1.65 BB/9 which is the highest rate since his 2013 season and also has a 1.38 HR/9 rate which is the highest of his career. Additionally, he has a HR/FB percentage of 18.5 which again is a career high. The Padres have the highest HR/FB percentage in the majors against LHP.
  • Kershaw has the highest percentage of hard-hit batted balls in his career and San Diego leads the bigs, once again, in hard-hit batted ball percentage vs southpaws.
  • Opponents are hitting .237 against Kershaw when he pitches at home, which is 51 points higher than in his road starts, but his home ERA is 3.05, which is 0.70 lower than on the road.
  • San Diego is 6-1 in Chris Paddack’s starts this season and he is 3-1 with a 1.55 ERA and a 0.69 WHIP. He has also had a quality start in each outing of 2019.
  • He is averaging 10.18 K/9, 2.21 BB/9 and 0.44 HR/9 in his rookie campaign.
  • Paddack is also holding opposing hitters to a measly .129 batting average. That being said, 47.3 percent of the batted balls against him have been hard-hit and the Dodgers rank fourth in the majors in hard-hit batted ball percentage vs RHP.
  • Over his three road starts, he has a 1.80 ERA and a .154 opponent batting average and has yet to surrender a home run.
  • San Diego is 4-4 against left-handed starters this season and ranks 25th in batting average and 24th in runs scored vs LHP but also has the second-fewest plate appearances. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 19-9 against right-handed starters, sitting sixth in batting average and 11th in runs scored vs righties.

My Best Bet for San Diego vs Los Angeles

OVER 7

Kershaw surrendered three earned runs on six hits over six innings against San Diego 11 days ago in a game that finished with a combined score of 7. Meanwhile, the Padres lead MLB in hard-hit batted ball percentage and HR/FB percentage vs LHP. On the flip side, 47.3 percent of batted balls off of Paddack have been hard-hit and the Dodgers rank fourth in the majors in hard-hit percentage vs RHP.

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