The San Diego Padres pushed all in last season, driving the Dodgers to the brink of elimination in the postseason but falling just short. This year, it'll be a tougher slog to climb the mountain.
The NL West remains a gauntlet. The Dodgers are dominant and the Diamondbacks are getting slept on. But, San Diego's talented core gives them a shot. If Fernando Tatis Jr. delivers a monster season and guys like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Yu Darvish bounce back, the Friars are no pushover.
In this 2025 Padres season preview, I'll break down their latest odds, key projections, and the best bets for their upcoming campaign.
2025 Padres Odds: Division, NL Pennant, World Series
| World Series Odds | NL Pennant Odd | NL West Odds |
|---|---|---|
| +3000 | +1400 | +950 |
Odds as of March 12th from Sportsbook
After the World Series last year, the winning Dodgers paraded around with their trophy. They celebrated an easy win over the Yankees, while saying THESE Padres were their real toughest test — the true World Series.
San Diego has lost some talent since then (namely Tanner Scott, Jurickson Profar, and Kyle Higashioka). But with some additions around the edges (Nick Pivetta, Connor Joe, Elias Diaz), and a strong core, this team can still give the Dodgers a run. I don't hate San Diego as a long-shot WS pick at +3000.
2025 Padres Win Total Odds
| 2025 Win Total | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|
| 85.5 | -114 | -106 |
Odds as of March 12th from Sportsbook
I do think the Padres can make a run at the World Series this year, but I also think taking OVER 85.5 is a tough ask. This is a team that's won O85.5 just twice in the last 14 years. They lost some talent off a 93-win team last year and the division got better around them. I think this is a stay-away bet for me or UNDER, if you make me pick.
2025 Padres Playoff Odds
| To Make Playoffs | To Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|
| +135 | -165 |
Odds as of March 11
The only 'lock' in the NL playoffs this year is Los Angeles. After that, I think the Padres are right in that second NL tier with the Phillies, Braves, Mets, Brewers, Cubs, and Diamondbacks. Only five of those next six teams can make the playoffs, though (maybe fewer if the Reds, Giants, or another squad surprises). However, at plus money, I think taking a shot on the Padres to snap up a Wild Card spot is a smart bet. They've got just as much upside as any other squad.
2025 Padres: NL MVP Odds, NL Cy Young Odds
| MVP Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +850 |
| Jackson Merill | +5500 |
Odds as of March 12th
| Cy Young Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | +2100 |
| Michael King | +2100 |
Odds as of March 12th
Tatis Jr. is the obvious MVP candidate. If he delivers a 40-40 season (which he’s capable of), +800 odds could look like a steal by July. Tatis' 162-game average for his career is a 143 OPS+, 40 homers, and 29 stolen bases. The problem is he hasn't played more than 141 games in a single season. If he's healthy all year, Tatis is positioned to vault his Padres up the standings and earn considerable MVP looks.
On the Cy side, Cease is a real candidate, despite sitting eighth on the odds board. This is a guy who's led baseball in starts three of the last four years, strikes out over 200 batters with ease, and has finished top-four in Cy voting in two of the last three seasons. There's no reason he can't lock in for 33 more starts this year and finally win the thing. Cease's career-low FIP of 3.10 last year (compared to a 3.47 ERA) indicates he may have more to show than his strong 2024.
