The Pittsburgh Pirates have won four of the five meetings with the San Diego Padres this year yet they are slight +102 underdogs with the Padres coming back at -122. Chris Archer and Chris Paddack square off on the mound with the total Sportsbook at 9 runs.
Standout Stats
- San Diego is 5-7 SU and 6-6 ATS in its last 12 games but more recently is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS through its last seven. The Padres have a 17-18 road record this year.
- Pittsburgh is 4-9 SU and ATS over its last 13 contests. The Pirates have a 15-19 home record and they are 4-1 SU and ATS against the Padres this season.
- The total has gone OVER in six of San Diego’s last 10 matches with an average combined score of 13.4. Similarly, the total has gone OVER in eight of Pittsburgh’s last 13 with an average combined score of 10.85. Lastly, the total has gone OVER in three of the five meetings with these clubs with an average combined score of 7.4.
- The Pirates are just 4-8 over Chris Archer’s 12 trips to the mound this season and he is 3-6 with a 5.85 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. He has three quality starts as well.
- He is averaging the highest BB/9 and HR/9 rates of his career, walking 4.59 batters per nine innings and allowing 2.37 home runs over nine frames. He also has the highest ERA and FIP of his career.
- Opponents are hitting .255 against Archer and 45.7 percent of the contact is hard hit and 16.7 percent is soft hit. The Padres rank 25th in hard-hit percentage vs RHP this month.
- Archer has a 4.15 ERA and a .242 opponent batting average over his seven home starts in 2019. He averages lower K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 rates compared to his road outings. He also has lower hard-hit and soft-hit contact as well.
- The Padres are 7-5 behind Chris Paddack this year and he is 4-4 with a 3.15 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. He has hurled five quality starts as well.
- He is averaging 9.87 K/9, 1.78 BB/9 and 1.37 HR/9 rates in his rookie season.
- Opponents are hitting just .196 against Paddack but of the contact against, 44.5 percent is hard hit and 18.5 percent is soft hit. Pittsburgh ranks 15th in hard-hit percentage vs RHP this month.
- Paddack has a 3.94 ERA and a .225 opponent batting average in his six road appearances, both marks are higher than his home starts. He averages higher BB/9 and HR/9 rates while having a lower K/9 rate as well. Lastly, 50 percent of the contact against in those road outings have been hard hit.
- San Diego’s bullpen has tossed the sixth-most innings this month and has the fourth-highest ERA. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s bullpen has hurled the 10th-most innings in June and ranks 13th in highest ERA.
- The Pirates are 27-29 against right-handed starters this year, ranking fourth in batting average and 19th in runs scored vs RHP. In June, Pittsburgh sits first in batting average and eighth in runs scored vs righties.
- The Padres are 32-32 against right-handed starters in 2019 and are 20th in batting average and 15th in runs scored vs righties. San Diego also ranks sixth in batting average and third in runs scored vs RHP this month.
My Best Bet for San Diego vs Pittsburgh
OVER 9
Both teams have been strong OVER plays recently and they are also hitting RHP really well this month with Pittsburgh leading the majors in batting average vs righties and San Diego isn’t far behind in sixth. Additionally, Archer is having a rough go this season and although his ERA drops in his home starts, it’s still elevated at 4.15. Meanwhile, Paddack has struggled on the road with a 3.94 ERA and 50 percent of the contact against in away starts have been hard hit.
Pittsburgh ranks first in MLB in batting average vs RHP this month.home Pittsburgh is 4-8 behind Chris Archer this season.home San Diego's bullpen has the fourth-highest ERA this month.away
