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Will Cardinals Continue UNDER Trend In Opener vs the Mets?

The New York Mets are just 4-9 behind Jacob deGrom this season, yet they are -133 favorites in tonight’s game with the visiting St. Louis Cardinals coming back at +113. DeGrom and Jack Flaherty face off on the hill with the total opening at 7 runs.

Cardinals vs Mets Game Center

Standout Stats

  • St. Louis is 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS through its last 12 contests. The Cardinals are just 13-20 on the road this season.
  • New York is 6-7 SU and 8-5 ATS over its last 13 matches and is 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven. The Mets have a 19-11 home record this year.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Mets’ last 12 with an average combined score of 9.25. Similarly, the total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Cardinals’ last 17 contests with an average combined score of 7.29. However, the total went OVER in two of the first three meetings between these two.
  • St. Louis is 6-7 over Flaherty’s 13 trips to the mound this year and he is 4-3 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He has five quality starts as well.
  • He is averaging K/9 and BB/9 rates comparable to his rookie season last year but he has a higher HR/9 rate.
  • Opponents are hitting .228 against Flaherty and 22.6 percent of the contact is soft-hit while 40.9 percent is hard-hit, both career highs. The Mets rank 21st in hard-hit percentage vs RHP over the last 30 days.
  • Flaherty has a 6.67 ERA and a .291 opponent batting average over his six road starts. He averages an ugly 5.08 BB/9 rate to go along with 1.91 HR/9 and 8.89 K/9 rates. He also has a higher soft-hit percentage and a lower hard-hit percentage away from home.
  • The Mets are just 4-9 behind Jacob deGrom in 2019 and he is 3-6 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He also has eight quality starts.
  • He has the highest K/9 rate of his career while also having the third-highest BB/9 and second-highest HR/9 rates.
  • Opponents are hitting .229 off deGrom and he has a career high in hard-hit batted ball percentage at 38.4, while having a 21.2 soft-hit percentage. St. Louis ranks second in hard-hit percentage vs RHP over the last 30 days.
  • DeGrom has a 3.97 ERA and a .227 opponent batting average in his six home outings. He has lower K/9 and HR/9 rates while having a much higher BB/9 rate. DeGrom has lower soft-hit and hard-hit percentages at home as well.
  • The Mets have thrown the fewest bullpen innings over the last two weeks but also have the second-highest ERA over that span at 6.99. The Cardinals bullpen has tossed the eighth-fewest innings over the last 14 days and ranks ninth in ERA over that span at 3.79.
  • St. Louis is 28-26 against right-handed starters this season, ranking 16th in batting average and 13th in runs scored. However, the Cards sit dead last in batting average and 27th in runs scored vs RHP over the last 30 days.
  • New York is 26-25 against right-handed starters in 2019, sitting 18th in batting average and 20th in runs scored. More recently, the Mets rank 21st in batting average and 17th in runs scored vs RHP over the last 30 days.

My Best Bet for St. Louis vs New York

OVER 7

Flaherty has been abysmal on the road this season with a 5.08 BB/9 rate and a 6.67 ERA, while more recently sporting a 6.23 ERA overall in June. Meanwhile, deGrom has a higher ERA and BB/9 rate in his home starts. Additionally, the Mets bullpen ranks second-last in ERA over the last two weeks at 6.99. Lastly, the total has gone OVER in seven of deGrom’s 13 starts and in eight of Flaherty’s 13 outings as well.

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