The Atlanta Braves improved to 18-6 over their last 24 home games with a win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday. Atlanta continues its nine-game homestand with another matchup against the Rays on Thursday night.
- Date/Time: July 30, 7:10 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Truist Park
- TV Coverage: (None)
- Sportsbook Odds: Braves -137 | O/U 8.5 (Line History)
- Rays vs Braves Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The line and total have both been fairly consistent for this game with Atlanta going off as a -137 favorite, the Rays going off at +127 as a road underdog, and the total set at 8.5 runs. These two teams have played three straight games against each other, with the home team cashing in as a favorite in all three.
Starting Pitchers Analysis
Ryan Yarbrough was dominant across 5.1 innings in his first start of the season last Saturday, allowing only four hits and no runs in a 4-1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. Yarbrough should be fresh on Thursday after throwing only 69 pitches in that victory.
Max Fried pitched well in his first full season as a starter in 2019, going 17-6 with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP while striking out 173 batters over 165.2 innings. The 26-year-old gave up two runs in five innings of work in his season debut last Saturday as the Braves defeated the New York Mets 5-3 in extra innings.
Tampa Bay News & Notes
The Rays had a four-game winning streak snapped in a 7-4 loss to the Braves on Wednesday night to fall to 4-2 SU on the season. Tampa Bay’s offense has been excellent through the first six games of 2020, averaging 5.5 runs per game and never scoring fewer than four runs. The offense will only get better when Austin Meadows is cleared to play after testing positive for COVID-19 earlier this month.
Tampa Bay had one of the best pitching staffs in the league last season and should finish among the best again this season. If this early offensive production is the real deal, the Rays could live up to their preseason hype as a dark-horse World Series contender.
Atlanta News & Notes
Atlanta broke out of its two-game losing streak against Tampa Bay on Wednesday thanks in large part to Freddie Freeman, who went 4-for-5 with a home run and three RBIs. Ronald Acuna Jr.’s slow start to the season has hampered the Braves offense out of the gate; the 22-year-old is 6-for-24 with no RBIs through six games after batting .280 with 41 home runs and 101 RBIs in 2019.
Dating back to last season, the Braves have gone 11-3 SU in Max Fried’s last 14 starts. That stretch includes a perfect 6-0 SU record across six home games in Atlanta.
Betting Pick: Tampa Bay +127
This feels like a pretty even matchup on paper with two solid young pitchers on the mound and two capable opposing offensive lineups. With that in mind, the value is on the underdog in this series finale.
- Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road.
- Atlanta is 7-4 in its last 11 games as a betting favorite.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay.
