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Red Sox Look To End ALDS At Home In Game 4

The Red Sox host the Rays in Game 4 of the ALDS up 2-1 in the series.

It took 13 innings in Game 3, but the Boston Red Sox won their second straight over the Tampa Bay Rays to go up 2-1 in their American League Division Series. They’ll have a chance to end the best-of-five at Fenway Park in Boston tonight.

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays
  • Date/Time: October 11, 7:07 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Fenway Park
  • TV Coverage: FS1-INT, FS1
  • Opening Odds: Red Sox/Rays -105 | O/U 9.5 (Line History)
  • Rays vs Red Sox Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

Both the Red Sox and Rays come into Game 4 at -105. The total is set at 9.5 runs with the OVER going 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between these clubs in Boston. The Red Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 outings at home.

Starting Pitchers Analysis

Despite a 13-8 record, Eduardo Rodriguez had the worst statistical season of his career in terms of both ERA (4.74) and WHIP (1.39) through 32 outings. The left-hander will get the nod again in Game 4 after a disastrous start in Game 1 in which he gave up two hits and two earned runs over just 1.2 innings.

With no starting pitcher named for Game 4, it appears as though it will be a bullpen game for the Rays. After going through nine pitchers in Game 3 (tied for second-most pitchers used in a game in postseason history), their options are limited.

Right-handers Collin McHugh (6-1, 1.55 ERA) and Michael Wacha (3-5, 5.05 ERA) are two of the most likely options to start as both have experience as openers. Wacha spent the majority of the season in the rotation with 23 starts in 29 appearances, but McHugh (seven starts in 37 games) was much more reliable on the mound.

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Boston News & Notes

Catcher Christian Vazquez was the hero for Boston in Game 3 as his two-run walk-off homer ended the contest in the 13th inning, putting the Red Sox up 2-1 in the series. Boston also got notable offensive contributions from Kyle Schwarber (three hits, two runs, one RBI) and Enrique Hernandez (three hits, one run, two RBIs).

The Red Sox got strong pitching performances from starter Nathan Eovaldi and starter-turned-reliever Nick Pivetta, who combined for 15 strikeouts while scattering six hits and two earned runs over nine innings.

With the win at home, Boston improved to 8-3 in its last 11 at Fenway. The Red Sox will look to capitalize on home-field advantage again in Game 4 to close out the series.

Tampa Bay News & Notes

The Rays will be a bit sour after Game 3 as a controversial ground-rule double ruling in the top of the 13th proved to be pivotal.

Kevin Kiermaier launched a ball off the right-field fence and it bounced on the ground, then deflected off Hunter Renfroe’s hip before jumping over the fence. If the ball stayed in play, Yandy Diaz, who was on first, would have easily scored to give Tampa Bay the lead. Instead, the umpire crew decided that it was a ground-rule double and returned Diaz to third base. The Rays never scored, and the rest is history.

Despite the Game 3 loss, Tampa Bay has still had the upper hand against Boston this year, going 12-6 in their last 18 matchups.

How Boston Will Win

The Red Sox will look to capitalize on the Rays’ depleted pitching staff in Game 4. McHugh was solid this season but he primarily pitched in relief, while Wacha was a mainstay in the rotation but got lit up for a 5.05 ERA. The Boston bats will like their chances regardless of who’s on the mound for Tampa Bay.

How Tampa Bay Will Win

The Rays got to Rodriguez early in Game 1 as they cashed in two runs in the first inning en route to a 5-0 win. With Rodriguez on the mound again in Game 4, they’ll look to pounce early again to even up the series.

Computer Pick: Red Sox ML (+102)

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Shark Bites
  • Tampa Bay is 12-6 in its last 18 against Boston.
  • The UNDER is 10-4 in Tampa Bay’s last 14 games.
  • The UNDER is 8-4 in Boston’s last 12 games.