The Cleveland Indians have won three of Shane Bieber’s four starts this month, yet they are a +118 underdog as they continue their series with the visiting Tampa Bay Rays, who are coming back at -138. Blake Snell gets the ball for the Rays aiming for his sixth quality start of 2019. The total opened at 7.5 runs.
Standout Stats
- Cleveland is 7-11 SU and 8-10 ATS through its last 18 contests and is 0-4 SU and ATS over its last four. The Indians are also 14-12 at Progressive Field this year.
- Tampa Bay is 10-7 SU and 9-8 ATS over its last 17 matches. The Rays have the best road record in the majors at 16-7.
- The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Cleveland’s last 16 games with an average combined score of 8.06. Meanwhile, the total has gone UNDER in nine of Tampa Bay’s last 17 with an average combined score of 7.41.
- The Rays are 4-5 through Blake Snell’s nine starts this season and he is 3-4 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He has also tossed five quality starts this year.
- Although he has a slightly elevated ERA, his FIP is the best of his career at 2.58. He also has the highest K/9 and lowest BB/9 rates of his career.
- Opponents are hitting .211 against Snell and of the contact against, only 26.9 percent has been hard-hit and 25 percent has been soft-hit. His hard-hit batted ball percentage is the second-lowest among starters who have thrown at least 20 innings, while his soft-hit percentage ranks sixth. Cleveland ranks 12th in hard-hit percentage vs southpaws this month.
- Snell has been hit more on the road than at home, sporting a 3.86 ERA and a .244 opponent batting average in away games.
- The Indians are 6-3 in Shane Bieber outings this season and he is 3-2 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP, including his one relief appearance. He has seven quality starts this year as well.
- He is averaging the highest K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 rates of his career, while also holding a HR/FB percentage of 16.7 that is 4.6 points higher than last year.
- Opponents are hitting just .209 against Bieber and of the contact against, 42.4 percent has been hard-hit and 15.9 percent has been soft-hit. Tampa Bay ranks 16th in hard-hit percentage vs RHP in May.
- Bieber is holding a 3.16 ERA and a .229 opponent batting average through his five home starts this year.
- Cleveland is 6-7 against left-handed starters this season and sits 27th in MLB in batting average and 17th in runs scored against lefties. In May, the Indians rank 23rd in average but eighth in runs scored vs southpaws.
- Tampa Bay is 19-13 against right-handed starters this year, ranking fifth in batting average but 20th in runs scored vs RHP. The Rays rank sixth in batting average and 21st in runs scored against righties in May.
My Best Bet for Tampa Bay vs Cleveland
UNDER 7.5
Tampa Bay has been hitting righties well this season but is struggling to manufacture runs and Bieber has done a great job keeping opposing bats in check, especially at home.
Meanwhile, Cleveland is having difficulty consistently hitting southpaws but is able to hit home runs to score runs. However, Snell has allowed just two homers on the road and has the second-lowest hard-hit percentage among starters with 20 or more innings pitched. Lastly, Cleveland ranks 22nd and Tampa Bay ranks 24th in runs scored this month.
