The Tampa Bay Rays have the best road record in the majors this year but they are a +110 underdog tonight with the host New York Yankees coming back at -130 in the series opener. Yonny Chirinos and Masahiro Tanaka get the ball for this contest with the total Sportsbook at 9.5 runs.
Standout Stats
- Tampa Bay is 8-5 SU and 7-6 ATS through its last 13 games but more recently it is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in its last six. The Rays have an MLB-best 23-10 record on the road.
- New York is 5-8 SU and ATS over its last 13 contests. The Yankees sport a 22-13 home record this season.
- The total has gone OVER in nine of the Yankees’ last 13 with an average combined score of 11.92. Conversely, the total has gone UNDER in nine of the Rays’ last 13 games with an average combined score of 8. The total has gone OVER in three of the six meetings between these two teams this year.
- The Yankees are 6-8 over Masahiro Tanaka’s 14 trips to the mound this season and he is 4-5 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He has seven quality starts this year as well.
- He is averaging the lowest K/9 and HR/9 rates since the 2016 season while his BB/9 rate is just slightly over his career average.
- Opponents are hitting .246 against Tanaka and 18.2 percent of the contact is soft-hit while 39.7 percent is hard-hit. The Rays rank eighth in hard-hit percentage vs RHP over the last 30 days.
- Tanaka has a 3.35 ERA and a .259 opponent batting average through eight home starts in 2019. He averages higher K/9 and lower BB/9 and HR/9 rates compared to his road outings and has lower soft-hit and hard-hit percentages.
- He has allowed one run on eight hits in 13 innings over two starts against Tampa Bay this season.
- The Rays are 5-3 in Yonny Chirinos’ eight starts this year and he is 7-2 with a 2.88 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, including six relief appearances. He also has five quality starts.
- He is averaging lower K/9 and BB/9 rates compared to his rookie season last year but has a higher HR/9 rate as well. Although he has a respectable 2.88 ERA, his FIP is a little more realistic at 4.08.
- Opponents are hitting .206 off Chirinos and just 31.4 percent of the batted balls are hard-hit while 20 percent are soft-hit. The Yankees sit 18th in hard-hit percentage vs RHP over the last 30 days.
- Chirinos has a 3.00 ERA with a .202 opponent batting average over his six road outings, three of which were relief appearances. He has lower K/9 and HR/9 rates away from home while having an elevated BB/9 rate. He also has a higher soft-hit percentage and much lower hard-hit percentage.
- He has given up two runs on eight hits over 8.2 relief innings vs the Yankees this season.
- The Rays bullpen has tossed the sixth-most innings so far this month but has the eighth-best ERA at 3.45. Meanwhile, the Yankees bullpen has hurled the 16th-most innings and its ERA ranks 20th at 5.70.
- New York is 36-18 against right-handed starters in 2019, ranking eighth in batting average and first in runs scored. Over the last 30 days, the Pinstripes rank fourth in batting average and, once again, first in runs scored vs RHP.
- Tampa Bay is 28-18 against right-handed starters this season, sitting fourth in batting average but 20th in runs scored. More recently, the Rays are eighth in batting average and ninth in runs scored vs righties over the last 30 days.
My Best Bet for Tampa Bay vs New York
UNDER 9.5 runs
Chirinos has been good on the road, limiting opponents to a measly .202 average, and he has a higher soft-hit and a lower hard-hit percentage compared to his home appearances. Similarly, Tanaka has a higher K/9 rate while having lower BB/9 and HR/9 rates in his starts at Yankee Stadium this year and has had tremendous success against the Rays this year.
The total has gone UNDER in nine of Tampa Bay’s last 13 games.away Tampa Bay has the best road record in MLB this season (23-10).away Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) has a 0.69 ERA vs Tampa Bay this season.home
