The New York Yankees have won nine of 13 contests against the Tampa Bay Rays this season and are a -150 favorite in tonight’s game with the visiting Rays coming back at +130. The Yankees have gone UNDER in five straight games and send James Paxton to the hill, with Blake Snell countering for the Rays. The total opened at 8.5 runs.
Standout Stats
- New York is 10-4 SU and ATS over its last 14 games and took two of three against Toronto in its first series of the second half. The Yankees are 33-15 at home in 2019 and they have won nine of the 13 matches with the Rays this year.
- Tampa Bay is 9-4 SU and 7-6 ATS through its last 13 contests and won two of three games with Baltimore over the weekend. The Rays are 29-18 on the road this year.
- The total has gone OVER in six of Tampa Bay’s last 10 matches with an average combined score of 10.2. Conversely, the total has gone UNDER in seven of New York’s last nine, including the last five in a row, with an average combined score of 6.56. The total has gone OVER in six of the 13 matches between these clubs this year with an average combined score of 8.54.
- The Pinstripes are 9-6 over James Paxton’s 15 trips to the mound this season and he is 5-4 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. He has five quality starts.
- He is averaging the second-highest K/9 and BB/9 rates in his career.
- Opponents are hitting .265 against Paxton and he has a career-high 4.01 ERA but his FIP is more respectable at 3.64. Of the contact against, 14.3 percent has been soft-hit and 37.4 percent has been hard-hit. The Rays rank 21st in hard-hit percentage vs LHP since the start of June.
- Paxton has a 3.26 ERA and a .217 opponent batting average over his eight home starts. He averages lower K/9 and higher BB/9 rates compared to his road appearances. However, he has a higher soft-hit percentage and a lower hard-hit percentage at Yankee Stadium.
- The Rays are 9-9 behind Blake Snell this year and he is 5-7 with a 4.70 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP and nine quality starts.
- He is averaging the highest K/9 and HR/9 rates and the lowest BB/9 rate of his career.
- Opponents are hitting .250 against Snell this season and of the batted balls against, 33.9 percent have been hard-hit and 17.4 have been soft-hit. The Yankees rank 27th in hard-hit percentage vs southpaws since June 1.
- Snell has a 6.48 ERA and a .287 opponent batting average through his nine road appearances this year. He averages higher K/9 and BB/9 rates compared to pitching at Tropicana Field and has a much lower soft-hit percentage in batted balls against.
- New York is 14-11 against left-handed starters this year, ranking 21st in batting average and 24th in runs scored vs southpaws. Since June 1, the Pinstripes are 26th in batting average and 22nd in runs scored vs LHP.
- Tampa Bay is 20-14 against left-handed starters this season, sitting 14th in batting average and 12th in runs scored vs lefties. Since the beginning of June, the Rays rank 11th in average and eighth in runs scored vs southpaws.
My Best Bet for Tampa Bay vs New York
New York Yankees -1.5
Looking at the starting pitchers in this one, there’s a significant advantage to Paxton over Snell. Paxton is limiting opponents to a .217 average and holds a respectable 3.26 ERA at Yankee Stadium. Snell has been downright bad on the road, with Tampa Bay dropping six of his nine starts by an average margin of 4.83, and he has a 6.48 ERA and a .287 opponent batting average.
Lastly, the Yankees are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS when they are favored with lines of -145 to -155, with an average winning margin of 3.5.
