The Houston Astros will look to close out their three-game series vs the Tampa Bay Rays with a victory tonight. The Astros dropped a rare game last night with Justin Verlander on the mound, snapping an 11-game win streak in the process. But Houston has a glut of legit starting pitchers in its rotation and will send righty Charlie Morton to the mound to try to stifle the Tampa Bay batting order. The Astros are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS at home when Morton is on the hill and opened as large -240 favorites to get back on the winning track.
- Tampa Bay is 1-3 SU and ATS in Nathan Eovaldi’s four starts this season.
- The Rays are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games.
- The OVER has hit in 14 of the Astros’ last 17 games.
Pitchers matchup seems one-sided
Nathan Eovaldi gets the starting nod for the Rays and in his career has been steady vs the Astros with a 2.52 ERA in four career starts. But this season hasn’t been kind to the Houston native as he owns a 4.42 ERA in three road starts and has given up nine earned runs in just his last two starts off of 12 hits. This is only the fifth start for Eovaldi (the Rays are 1-3 SU and ATS when he starts) after coming off his second Tommy John procedure, so he may still be working out the kinks and getting back into form, which should make bettors uneasy about backing the hurler.
As for Houston, Morton owns a 5-1 record and a 2.76 ERA in eight starts at Minute Maid Park and Houston is 9-5 SU in Morton’s 14 starts this season. But runline bettors have not been a huge beneficiary of the hurler’s exploits as the Astros are 7-7 ATS in those games. Perhaps a start at home will increase those odds as the ’Stros record is much more profitable at 5-2 SU and ATS with an average win margin of 2.1 runs in those contests.
Tampa has been a sneaky runline bet as an underdog
The Rays are nowhere close to finishing at the top of the AL East Division and it seems unlikely this season they will finish with a record above .500. But over their last 13 games, they’ve been able to keep games close and +1.5 runline bettors are profiting. Tampa is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games and what’s most impressive about that record is it’s mostly against teams with winning records (Yankees, Mariners, Astros, Blue Jays).
One of the factors for why they’re keeping games close has been their pitching staff, which has a collective 3.55 ERA in June, which is good for ninth in MLB in that span. They’ve also limited teams to only 16 home runs this month in 19 games so that makes the Rays worth a runline consideration especially when you factor in that they’re 2-9 SU in their last 11 games vs teams with winning records.
Totals bettors love when the Astros take the field
The total opened at 7.5 in this matchup and the OVER could be the profitable angle in this matchup if runline isn’t your forte. Houston has been a dream bet for the bettors who like to take the OVER as the total has been surpassed in 14 of their last 17 games with an average combined score of 10.1 runs per game. The OVER has also hit in seven of the last 10 games in this matchup with an average combined score of 9.5 runs per game.
