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Will Texas’ UNDER Trend Continue In Third Game With Boston?

Lance Lynn has thrown six straight quality starts but his Texas Rangers are a +130 underdog tonight with the Boston Red Sox coming back at -150. Rick Porcello gets the ball for the Sox aiming to lower his 7.59 ERA this month. Tonight’s total opened at 9.5 runs.

Rangers vs Red Sox Game Center

Standout Stats

  • Texas is 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS over its last 15 contests and has won the first two games of this series with Boston. The Rangers are 12-18 on the road this year.
  • Boston is 5-9 SU and ATS through its last 14 matches and has dropped its last three. The Red Sox are 15-17 at Fenway Park.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Rangers’ last 13 with an average combined score of 9.69. Similarly, the total has gone UNDER in seven of the Red Sox’s last 12 contests with an average combined score of 9. The total has split in the first two games of this series.
  • Boston is 7-6 over Rick Porcello’s 13 trips to the mound this year and he is 4-6 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He has six quality starts as well.
  • He is averaging the highest BB/9 and second-highest HR/9 rates of his career while having the lowest K/9 rate since 2014.
  • Opponents are hitting .265 against him and he has his highest WHIP since 2012. However, he has the lowest hard-hit percentage since 2016 and highest soft-hit percentage since 2011. Texas ranks second in hard-hit percentage vs RHP over the last 30 days.
  • Porcello has a 3.86 ERA and a .237 opponent batting average over his seven starts at Fenway Park. He has lower K/9 and HR/9 rates but a higher BB/9 rate at home. Lastly, 22.8 percent of the contact is soft-hit and just 28.3 percent is hard-hit.
  • Texas is 8-5 behind Lance Lynn this year and he is 7-4 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. He has nine quality starts, including his last six in a row.
  • He is averaging the lowest BB/9 rate of his career while having his highest K/9 rate since his rookie season in 2011 and his lowest HR/9 rate since 2015.
  • Opponents are hitting .267 against Lynn, the highest average against in his career. Additionally, he has the highest hard-hit percentage in his career and lowest soft-hit percentage since 2012. Boston ranks 16th in hard-hit percentage vs RHP over the last 30 days.
  • Lynn has a 3.95 ERA and a .253 opponent batting average through his seven road outings. However, he has higher K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 rates compared to his home starts. He also has a much higher soft-hit percentage and lower hard-hit percentage.
  • The Red Sox bullpen has thrown the eighth-most innings over the last two weeks and ranks 22nd with a 5.40 ERA. Meanwhile, the Rangers bullpen has tossed the third-most innings over the last 14 days and sits 12th with a 3.95 ERA.
  • The Rangers are 24-19 against right-handed starters this year, ranking third in batting average and fourth in runs scored. Over the last 30 days, Texas sits second in batting average and ninth in runs scored vs RHP.
  • The Red Sox are 26-21 against right-handed starters this season, sitting fifth in batting average and sixth in runs scored. Boston also ranks sixth in batting average and 12th in runs scored vs righties over the last 30 days.

My Best Bet for Texas vs Boston

Texas moneyline

Although Porcello has been better at home than he has been on the road, he has allowed nine runs over 10.2 innings so far in June. Meanwhile, Lynn has tossed six straight quality starts and like Porcello has been strong at home, Lynn has been good on the road. Boston’s bullpen has been getting torched recently and Texas’ has been much better. Lastly, the Rangers have roughed up righties this season and that should continue tonight.

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