My MLB same-game parlay today features three legs on the Tigers-Blue Jays contest. The Blue Jays went 6-4 SU heading into the All-Star break, but I'll still be fading them on the ML as the first leg of my parlay.
Read the other two legs of my Tigers-Blue Jays same-game parlay today here:
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Tigers-Blue Jays Same-Game Parlay Today
Tigers-Blue Jays Odds - 7:05 p.m. ET
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jack Flaherty OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | -125 |
| Riley Greene Over 0.5 Hits | -190 |
| Tigers ML | +100 |
| Overall | +449 |
Tigers-Blue Jays Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 1: Flaherty OVER 0.5 Strikeouts
The Blue Jays aren't actually a crazy bad strikeout team, as their 19.7% K rate is the fifth-best in MLB. That said, Toronto tends to get dominated by certain pitchers year-over-year, and Flaherty is one of those dudes.
The right-hander has three appearances vs the Jays from his time with the Cardinals and Orioles. In those starts, Flaherty owns a 2.08 ERA in 17.1 innings, with just 11 hits allowed and 21 strikeouts (10.9 K/9). He's been a puzzle the Jays offense can't solve.
On top of Flaherty's dominance vs the Jays, Toronto's offense has endured some weirdly specific struggles that play in this OVER 5.5 strikeouts bet. While the Blue Jays aren't a strikeout club as a whole, the team owns a 25.5% K rate vs RHPs in the last month. Lately, righties are making them miss, and a rested Flaherty is bound to crack his OVER 5.5 strikeouts, a mark he's hit in 13 of 16 starts this year (81%).
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Tigers-Blue Jays Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 2: Greene Over 0.5 Hits
Lots of Tigers hitters have great numbers against Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt (more on that in a moment), but Greene is the best bet here.
The first-time All-Star is in the midst of a strong season (17 HRs, .866 OPS) with even better numbers against Bassitt (2-for-6, HR, 1.167 OPS). Greene was also on a tear heading into the AS break with a .380/.446/.640 slash line. He's seeing the ball better than ever and raking for power. A soft thrower like Bassitt (.789 OPS vs LHBs) is in big trouble against Greene's powerful left-handed cut.
Tigers-Blue Jays Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 3: Tigers ML
Last, but not least, we've got our Tigers ML, a product of a few factors, the first being the starting pitching matchup. Once Flaherty finds success and tosses six innings of good ball, the Tigers can pass the baton to their bullpen, which is much better than Toronto's. I see the battle of the bullpens being a massive factor in this close contest.
Toronto's 'pen allows a .330 wOBA (an all-encompassing offensive stat), the second-worst mark in the majors. Detroit is way further down at .298 wOBA, indicating they've done a far better job at limiting damage.
Beyond this, the Tigers simply have much more to play for as they take a few more stabs at the final AL Wild Card spot before the club decides to sell or buy at the trade deadline. I'm confident in my picks with all these factors in play and the Tigers as even-money underdogs.
